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In a few hours, the first big tournament post-Naxxramas release will start. Eight Europeans have been invited to the WEC qualifiers and the top two will walk out with seeds into the $62,000 grand final event in September.
Thought WEC’s decision to run the qualifiers as an invite tournament is deserving of some criticism, the player pool does make up for what would be a tense three days of competition. The brackets almost exclusively feature known names, some of which enjoy sizeable fanbases, so Hearthstone fans are expected to flock to Hearth2P’s tonight.
Another thing that will excite the audience is the fact that this will be the first instance where established pro players use the new Curse of Naxxramas cards in a competitive environment. That, ironically, might not be favorable for this particular tournament, however. At the moment, Zoo decks are in love with the [card]Nerubian Egg[/card] as well as the [card]Haunted Creeper[/card] and it’s more difficult than ever to deal with their board presence. At the same time, Miracle expert Forsen is advocating the use of [card]Nerub'ar Weblord[/card] to cripple Battlecry minions which heavily punishes the aforementioned Zoo decks.
A good question is where do control decks stand in the meta post the Arachnid Quarter and the answer likely is “well below the minion-based ones”. Haunted Creeper and Nerubian Egg both thrive against board clears, meaning Handlocks and Frost Mages will have a tough time stabilizing the board. At the same time, control Warriors didn’t really get a card that can use and are in an even worse position than before. Nevertheless, we mustn’t count the class out as the so called mid-range “EggWariors” are making a strong showing on ladder and might be a good choice for a tournament play as well.
Token Druids should also fit well in the entire aggro-decks-are-doing-great theme as it has become increasingly difficult to clear opponents’ boards. They can benefit from Haunted Creeper a lot for obvious reasons, as well as Nerub’ar Weblord, because his text doesn’t affect cards like Keeper of the Grove or Ancient of Lore.
Now that we've taken a quick look at what the meta could be like at the WEC qualifiers, let's get to the matches in question. We start off with the bracket:
The percentages in paretheses reflect the GosuBet odds
For the longest time, Ek0p and ThijsNL have been neck and neck in the GosuRankings and right now they’re less than 10 points of each other. The Cloud 9 powerhouse failed to win DreamHack Valencia as many expected to happen but he’s still holding the #2 position in Europe and remains one of the best players on the continent.
On the other side of the ring we have MYM’s Thijs who was steadily heading for the #1 in Europe until his record took a tumble at the WellPlayed cup as the Dutchman faced elimination in the first round of the loser’s bracket. Since then, he’s been playing on his regular high level and is still undefeated in King of the Hill after nine straight weeks. His win-rate remains ridiculously high at 74% and there’s no indication whatsoever that this will be an early WEC exit for him.
Ek0p and Thijs have shown on multiple occasions that although they tend to favor certain classes or playstyles, they are versatile players capable of adapting to the meta. Though initially known for his preference for Shaman and Handlock, Ek0p had great results with token Druid at DreamHack Summer, proving he can just as easily run something more offensive. Same is true for ThijsNL – usually a more greedy, control-favoring, Druid-loving player, the Dutchman 4-0’d Kaldi at King of the Hill just a week ago, running an aggro Rogue.
Looking at the match-up, there’s no clear favorite. Ek0p tends to be underestimated by the majority of the Hearthstone viewership but his win record is nonetheless solid – an all-time of 62% with a 92,3% peak in April. The numbers game might be in Thijs’ favor seeing how the Dutchman is at the silly 74% all-time win-rate percentages rarely matter in a game of Hearthstone. With so much tournament footage available for both players, this will be a test of who can scout and prepare better.
Writer’s prediction: 
ThijsNL 3-2 
Ek0p
The percentages in paretheses reflect the GosuBet odds
Kolento has always been a beast online but only recently did he travel to an offline tournament, much to his fanbase’s delight. The recently signed member of Cloud 9 should be happy to have the silver medal from M-House Cup as that torpedoed him into the top 10 of Europe’s players, somewhere lots of Hearthstone followers think he should definitely be.
Known as a genius deckbuilder, Kolento might get an edge when it comes to building with the new Naxxramas cards. Granted, there isn’t seemingly much room to experiment with just six new additions, but you can never know when it comes to Ukrainian’s ability to manipulate the pool into killer builds.
Darkwonyx, on the other hand, has been relatively silent. Ever since he finished, Curse’s Swede has been juggling wins with losses, not really pinning a stable win rate. He had an unsuccessful DreamHack Summer after barely not making playoffs but topped it with a third place at WellPlayed Cup two weeks later, showing he should never be counted out, especially in online tournaments.
Overall, I’d favor Kolento slightly, just because control decks – Darkwonyx’s favorite way of playing Hearthstone – are having a hard time following Curse of Naxxramas. At the same time, Kolento’s signature Miracle has not been affected negatively at all and in fact has grown stronger with the addition of the Nerub’ar Weblords and he’s also proven multiple times he can adapt to any meta shift on any region.
Writer’s prediction: 
Kolento 3-1 
Darkwonyx
The percentages in paretheses reflect the GosuBet odds
Semijew against Gnimsh is a proper David versus Goliath battle. For the longest time, the Pole held a top 10 worldwide ranking and is currently one of the winningest players in Hearthstone, with five top three finishes at major tournaments, including SeatStory Cup, M-House Cup, IEM Katowice and Tavern Takeover 2. He might’ve suffered a tiny upset at IEM Shenzhen by going out 0-2 in the group stage but this tumble means literally nothing – Gnimsh’s name screams experience and he’ll be entering this tournament with confidence.
At the same time, there’s lots of pressure on Semijew as this will be his first time competing at a high-stakes tournament. Though MYM’s player boasts a good win-rate, it mostly comes from weekly cups and lower tier events while competing in the highlights is Gnimsh’s second nature.
Several other things speak additionally in Gnimsh’s favor. The IEM Katowice champion will compete in a aggro-friendly meta, which fits his playstyle perfectly. Furthermore, he has a flawless track record against Semijew, having beaten him twice already in Gentlemen Cup with a total score of 4-1. Our GosuBet community might be split more or less evenly between the two but it’d something tells me this can end up quite the one-sided match-up.
Writer's prediction: 
Gnimsh 3-1 Semijew
The percentages in paretheses reflect the GosuBet odds
There’s quite a big gap between Rdu and Savjz coming into this match (and no, we’re not talking skill-wise so hold the torches).
For more than a half, the Curse captain has been off the radar. Ever since his disappointing 0-2 group elimination at DreamHack Summer, Savjz has not stepped on a tournament stage, not even an online one. The Finn is on a five-game losing streak which started at the finals of Tavern Takeover 1 and followed him through Deck Wars, Tavern Takeover 2 and the aforementioned DH Summer. Nobody knows just how prepared is he coming into the new meta and how much practices he’s had with the Naxxramas cards. As weird as it may sound, the constructed king of old is in the position of an underdog.
Rdu, on the other hand, is on the completely opposite side. He’s visited every major event and has performed excellently in each one. After winning DreamHack Summer, he took second at WellPlayed Cup, won a Zotac, got a silver medal from GosuCup, 4-3’d Ek0p at Deck Wars and topped it all off with a top 4 at IEM Shenzhen, only barely losing to Amaz’s Ragnaros snipes. If there’s any such thing as “the zone”, Rdu is in it and he’s playing the best Hearthstone of his life.
Numbers are also in Rdu’s favor. Currently ranked #2 in the world behind his rival Amaz, Rdu is at 78% all time win rate, with a peak of 82% in July. His tournament momentum will mean a lot and might even lead to a flawless core in the first round of this WEC qualifier.
Writer’s prediction: 
Rdu 3-0 
Savjz
