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On Tuesday, a new patch will go live and a lot of things will change. Promote, Blood for Blood, and Envenom will become lot weaker, where as Spell Shield and Protective Shield will become stronger. Anub'arak, Illidan and the Lost Vikings will be nerfed, while Malfurion and Rehgar are seemingly buffed (the talent changes are so vast, it's hard to tell).
Looking back on the tournament picks of the last two major patches, we can tell some interesting stories:
Kael'thas Patch Sylvanas Patch
1. Jaina, Valla, and Sylvanas still enjoy their most picked status, despite new heroes and large balance changes. Ranged DPS that can be applied safely and powerful team fighting heroics still reign supreme and I doubt the next patch will change this very much. Jaina losing sprint is a big deal, but I don't think it will change her pick rate. Maybe The Butcher will shake things up and put fear into squishy ranged heroes.
2. Despite the E.T.C overhaul that most agree have made him stronger, his tournament pick rate has dropped off significantly. This is most likely due to Anub'araks more drastic power spike and his strong synergy with Muradin. With Anub'arak being nerfed, and The Butcher seemingly being weak to CC, perhaps E.T.C will make a comeback.
3. When Promote was buffed during the Kael'Thas patch, it made Brightwing spike in popularity. The combination of healing, safe global lane pressure proved very powerful.
4. Illidan, The Lost Vikings, Zeratul, and Kael'thas may be considered the best heroes in the game (or at least the most dangerous), as their ban rates are extremely high. With Illidan and The Lost Vikings being nerfed heavily this upcoming patch, many predict that Zeratul will top the ban charts. Stats prove that is very likely.
5. If the Sylvanas patch was the age of double healer, then the Kael'thas patch was one of double warrior. As Anub'arak will be doing much less damage next patch and Tyrael being indirectly nerfed by the lowering of Blood for Blood damage, it's unlikely the double warrior meta will persist.
6. The Diablo overhaul the Kael'Thas patch brought ruined his tournament popularity. Unless he synergies extremely well with The Butcher, or a pick off style of play comes back into popularity, Diablo's popularity will probably stay the same.
Both Kael'thas and Sylvanas are new heroes with power levels which have defined the meta. They have earned having patches named after them. It doesn't bode well for melee assassins, as Blizzard seems intent on nerfing the most powerful ones (see Pre-beta Kerrigan, Pre-nerf Thrall and now, future Illidan).
Will The Butcher crave fresh meat badly enough to change the meta? I for one, look forward to our new demonic butcher overlords.
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