EU clashes with Asia in the Finals of the APAC Premier tournament!
The Overwatch community worldwide is looking to see the results of the APAC Premier finals. Set to begin on Sunday at 04:00 PDT/07:00 AM EDT/13:00 CEST, we'll see EU's Rogue face off against Korean team LunaticHai. We've seen this matchup a few times already, with LunaticHai coming out on top twice before (2-1 and 2-0). However, we have known Rogue to overcome all odds to take finals victories before.
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Analysis and Predictions
With NRG falling to LunaticHai in Round 2, our beloved Western side has Rogue left to claim the title. Lets take a look at some maps that Rogue and LunaticHai have faced off on, and see if any conclusions can be drawn.
If we look at the Upper Bracket semifinals encounter between these teams, we see that LunaticHai took Route 66 and King's Row, with Dorado going to Rogue. In the second Upper Bracket encounter, LunaticHai started with a 1 map upper bracket advantage. The map they played on, again, was Route 66. LunaticHai won that single map and technically took the series 2-0.
The tournament's meta for the Quarter and Semifinals on Payload Escort maps lies heavily with Lucio, Ana, Reinhardt, Zarya, and 2 heros out of McCree, Mei, and Reaper. The offense compositions were more varied, with only Lucio and Ana being above a 75% pick rate. Zarya, Reinhardt, McCree, and Winston were other common heros that fleshed out offensive compositions.
Dorado
In game 2 on Dorado in the Upper Bracket Semis, Rogue did not let LunaticHai capture the first point. Rogue's defense consisted of a tournament typical Reinhardt, Zarya, Ana, Lucio, Reaper, and Mei. LunaticHai's offensive composition consisted of Reinhardt, Zarya, Ana, Lucio, Reaper, and Roadhog.
Rogue was eventually wiped after multiple successful holds at Dorado's first point archway choke, but came in to recontest the payload a mere 2.24m from the checkpoint. LunaticHai was pushing the cart in Overtime, so zoning them off of the payload or wiping those on it would result in Overtime depleting. A Nanoboosted AKM attempted to use Death Blossom, but was hooked by LunaticHai's Roadhog. It didn't matter though as AKM chewed through LunaticHai with left clicks and Tviq's Blizzard ensured LunaticHai could not get back on to the point. When sides swapped and Rogue was on the offensive, they quickly rolled over LunaticHai and took Dorado with ease.
Dorado was a ridiculously strong map for Rogue. They fell only once to LunaticHai's offense in their last push. From the camera angle of the VoD, we aren't able to see how Tviq dies during this engagment. It seems as though Esca's Nanoboosted Reaper was able to keep Rogue's Ana distracted long enough to secure kills on members of Rogue. The most interesting thing about this, however, is that Unkoe's Ana never dies in this engagement. Esca's Reaper chooses to fight AKM's Reaper instead of finishing Unkoe's Ana when he finds her. Leaving Unkoe alive allows him to Nanoboost AKM's Reaper when he comes in, and Rogue wipes LunaticHai.
We can conclude a few things from this match. First, Rogue definitely wants to play LunaticHai on Dorado again. A first point hold and then a relatively easy capture is something to heavily consider. Rogue's ultimate economy and solid reactions to LunaticHai's attempt at unleashing Beyblades were top notch. Second, LunaticHai may have had a chance if they had killed Unkoe. He didn't have Nanoboost when the rest of Rogue was wiped, but built it up during the time LunaticHai was pushing the payload in Overtime. Thus, while Rogue looked strong on Dorado, it isn't a guaranteed map for them by any means. If Unkoe had been killed, LunaticHai may have made it farther.
Route 66
LunaticHai strikes back by not allowing Rogue to capture the first point on Route 66. Rogue's offensive lineup was Zarya, Ana, Lucio, Reinhardt, Tracer, and McCree. LunaticHai's defensive lineup was Ana, Roadhog, Reinhardt, Lucio, Zarya, and Mei.
LunaticHai manages to keep more numbers alive than Rogue at the end of most engagements. They ensure to focus targets and split Rogue's push attempts with Mei walls as well. It seems as though Rogue wasn't as confident on Route 66 as they were on Dorado. There was an engagement where Rogue had a clear ultimate advantage, but failed to capitalize as Esca's Mei split Rogue and allowed members to be picked off. Its clear to see that LunaticHai has a clear strategy and plenty of experience in winning this map.
When it was Rogue's turn to Defend, they took an extremely aggressive approach. They pushed LunaticHai as far back as the fallen train cars area close to the attacking spawn. It was going fairly well for Rogue until they tried for a Big Bang (Graviton Surge and Pulse Bomb) combination. As soon as they launch the Graviton, AKM's Reaper is picked off. LunaticHai's immediate reaction to use sound barrier allowed them to kill the aggressing members of Rogue, as some members of LunaticHai had a significant health pool advantage from the sound barrier. Reinforce takes out LunaticHai's Ana, but both he and Winz die shortly after. Tviq's Tracer kills LunaticHai's Roadhog. Rogue, however, is still down 3 members compared to LunaticHai's 2. Rogue uses sound barrier as soon as its up, but there are only 3 members of Rogue remaining. With Unkoe's Ana already being very low before the sound barrier hits, Esca's McCree and Dean's Reinhardt easily chew through the barrier and finish Unkoe off. Esca chooses to deadeye, but is met with a Reaper shotgun to the back of the head as AKM returns to the fight. A few more members of Rogue find their way back to the payload, and a Nanoboost soon goes out to AKM's Reaper. The resulting Beyblade only kills LunaticHai's Zarya, while the Tracer and Reinhardt of Rogue have already fallen. Rogue continues to trickle in, but LunaticHai focuses down targets and ensures they Payload continues to move. LunaticHai reaches the distance and take the map.
Rogue did better on Route 66 than LunaticHai did on Dorado in this series. However, when you look at the Route 66 game between these two teams after Rogue fights its way through the loser's bracket for a second chance, the match isn't as close.
LunaticHai manages to push the payload almost to the final checkpoint of Route 66. They are forced off of the payload in Overtime, and the match ends with 2 points and 65.59 m for LunaticHai. Rogue, however, on offense was stalled by the same linup from LunaticHai. Their continued explotation of map terrain to split and pick off Rogue with Mei and Roadhog was very well executed. Rogue is unable to capture the first checkpoint, or even push the cart as far as they did the previous match.
Closing Thoughts
With a relatively even series on King's Row, it'll be in Rogue's favor to ensure Dorado makes it into the map pool and Route 66 does not. It will be in LunaticHai's favor to ensure the opposite. While the scores of 2-1 and 2-0 on the surface indicate otherwise, closer analysis of the matches and circumstances show that Rogue has a good chance to still take the win from LunaticHai. Both teams seem to be running relatively popular compositions for the tournament, with neither side hard-countering the other. It'll be very exciting to see what the map draft will be, as it may very well be the biggest factor in the outcome.
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