The numerous matches of the StarLadder are coming close to completion and by Sunday, all the matches of the groupstage will have ended. Like prior seasons, the top four places of the season will make it into the playoffs at CyberArena, Kiev. The question remains, which teams will take those four precious spots? As of now, six teams are still in the run for it, even though some are less likely. This article will explain the situation these six teams have found themselves in and what they need to do to qualify for Kiev.
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Points : 33Max. points possible : 36
Remaining matches : 1
Left to play : RattleSnake.int
Advantage : Quantic, Ahead
Disadvantage : Na`Vi, Alliance
By winning their remaining match against RattleSnake.int, a top four finish is secured. In fact, even top two is secured because only Alliance could then also reach 36pts.
Survival is guaranteed, if Empire loses the final game, they might find themselves in a tie-situation and be part of the tiebreaker.
Points : 33Max. points possible : 33
Remaining matches : 0
Left to play : -
Advantage : Empire, Alliance, RattleSnake.int
Disadvantage : Quantic, Ahead
Na´Vi don't have a say at this point since they have played all their matches. But if anything other than the scenario to the left happens, Na`Vi is through to the playoffs.
Survival is already guaranteed. If Quantic wins their remaining two, RattleSnake wins all remaining (except vs Quantic) and Alliance wins at least one, Na`Vi will find themselves in a tiebreaker situation.
Points : 30Max. points possible : 39
Remaining matches : 3
Left to play : uebelst, Duza, aSpera
Advantage : Empire, Quantic, RattleSnake.int, Ahead
Disadvantage : Na`Vi
To ensure a place in the final four, Alliance needs to win two of their three remaining matches. By doing so, they will take first place uncontested in the standings due to an advantage against other possible candidates of 36 points.
Survival is more or less secured, the only situation where Alliance may end up going down is if they lose all three matches they have left. Depending on how the other matches end, even that might still not be enough to eliminate them.
Points : 27Max. points possible : 33
Remaining matches : 2
Left to play : RattleSnake.int, Ahead
Advantage : Na`Vi
Disadvantage : Empire, Alliance
If they beat RattleSnake.int, chances are decent depending on how Alliance and RattleSnake.int perform in their other matches. Their safest bet is to win their remaining two and hope for RattleSnake to lose one more in addition to the match against Quantic.
Not counting the unlikely scenario that Alliance loses all three of their remaining matches, Quantic's survival is secured if they win their last two matches. The win against Na`Vi will put them in a tiebreaker forcing position.
Points : 24Max. points possible : 36
Remaining matches : 4
Left to play : Empire, Ahead, Quantic, 4FC
Advantage : -
Disadvantage : Na`Vi, Alliance
To all-out guarantee it, they need to win all four remaining matches but if they take down Quantic plus any of the other three opponents, top four is secured.
RattleSnake.int needs to win two more matches if one of those is versus Quantic. If they lose to Quantic, they need to win the other three, which might result in tiebreaker or qualification.
Points : 21Max. points possible : 27
Remaining matches : 2
Left to play : Quantic, RattleSnake.int
Advantage : Na`Vi
Disadvantage : Empire, Alliance
As mentioned to the left, Ahead has yet to face Quantic and RattleSnake.int - both matches Ahead needs to win. On top of that, RattleSnake needs to beat Quantic but lose their other three games. This will place all three teams at 27 points where Ahead will have head-to-head win advantage over the other two, giving them the fourth place.
Tiebreaker is not on the table, it's either do or die, they only have one shot. Fortunately for Ahead, the two remaining matches are key matches against Quantic and RattleSnake who are directly above them in the charts.
Race for the finish line
Alliance are likely to take first place, as most people would expect them to win at least two of their remaining matches (vs Duza, uebelst, aSpera). For Ahead basically everything has to go exactly their way, even in matches they are not part of, otherwise they will not make it. The interesting part is that this late in the season, lots of matches between these potential top four finishers are still unplayed. Only Na`Vi (who are done altogether) and Alliance are not involved in any directly affecting matches, whereas RattleSnake, Ahead and Quantic can stir up the group stage all by themselves in their head-to-head matches. Even Empire's only remaining match is a key match (vs RattleSnake). Despite so few matches being left, most of them are surprisingly important.
Headline photo sources: TeamEmpire.org, GosuGamers, Twitch
Links
All VODs and matches of StarLadder
