Some of the groups offer a more decisive look than others and finally there is a chance for an NA team to breakthrough into the playoffs. So here we are at our first point already.
How far can/will the North American teams get in this tournament?
Ever since Cologne 2014 not a single NA team was able to get as far as the playoffs in a CS:GO Major Tournament. This finally presents a chance for them to venture further, as more teams than ever from this region have advanced to the groups and are facing opponents that can likely be upset.
Splyce, to start off, are the team with very little chance to get out of their groups. Sure, we have said that for the Qualifier already – in which they did – but in comparison to that group their opposition is far out of their reach and even their big brothers, Team Liquid, will have to fight their heart out to succeed over FaZe and fnatic, the last team in their group, is just untouchable for them in every aspect. But Liquid do stand a chance, as FaZe are struggling to escape their slump of recent bad results, but this might change once again when it comes to offline events as Joakim “jkaem” Myrbostad will not be DDOSed out of the competition.
As we go over to the other groups we can see Counter Logic Gaming, who sit in between the strong – and virtually untouchable – Astralis and the damaged EnVyUs. They will face off against them in the first match of the group already and could continue what NRG have started at CPL in once again subjecting them to an upset by an NA team. Although they will not be able to surpass Astralis, if they eliminated EnVyUs and then had to face whoever comes out of the nV/Gambit lower bracket, they could do it again and secure a spot in the playoffs.
The last NA team to watch is Cloud9 in Group D. There is reason to believe in them breaking the groups now, as promising results have been achieved with their new coach. They were unable to beat G2 last time, but nonetheless it was by a fairly close margin and partially due to a flawed terrorist setup which should have been improved by now. Natus Vincere will once again be in the spotlight here as they will likely push C9 down to the lower bracket already. But what awaits them there? G2 will likely succeed against Virtus.Pro, as they are sadly the weakest link in this group. Their recent performance has been more than just lacklustre and has put them out of the top ten by a large distance. Cloud9 will probably have to battle it out against them in the lower bracket and will then have to overcome G2 as Natus Vincere have the highest chances in cashing in the playoffs spot with fair ease. All in all, the NA teams do stand a chance, by far more than in the last majors. But even when they succeed and the quarter final matchups are set, they are far away from taking out the favourites in order to get any further, so probably don’t expect to see the likes of Team Liquid in the semis.
As you might learn below, however, there is a very tiny chance that the aforementioned might be wrong and we could actually see someone different from a favourite in the quarter finals already.
Is there a chance that the favourites will not make it to the playoffs?
First of all there is a certain need to discuss who can be seen as a favourite. There are about four teams that deserve the title and conveniently they are already distributed into all groups seperately.
Luminosity Gaming will be the team to start off with. As the only team to have been able to at least come close to beating fnatic they are somewhat the most likely team to really get this done. At Katowice they almost ran over fnatic on two maps, unfortunately they fell short, as the Swedes made huge comebacks on both. The potential is there and can only grow once we get to the Bo3 format again, as Luminosity will be able to get rid of Cache which broke their neck in Poland last time. But we wanted to ask ourselves the probability of them bailing out in the group stages already. Mousesports and NiP have brought promising results against LG in the groups of Katowice, which were also Bo1s. It is possible for one or another to make the upset happen, but nobody should bet on LG being upset twice. If they were to be brought down to the lower bracket they will surely claw their way back in again.
Fnatic will have a great time defeating Splyce and then whoever wants to challenge them again. No team in this group puts up significant competition to them and they will rush into the playoffs with pure ease, and to even top this, Astralis have yet an easier group to face. As we have learned by now, they tend to display huge dominance in group stages but seem to choke when it comes to the playoffs. But even if they were to not put up their a-game they should be able to eliminate whoever challenges them over the advancement. EnVyUs are not in the game right now and Gambit or CLG do not pose a threat to the top four team in the world.
Though possibly not having such an easy time as the Swedes or the Danes, Natus Vincere will also be very likely to succeed undamaged. They will fend off Cloud9 first and then walk over G2, just like that. Virtus.Pro have had enough tournaments up until now to prove themselves again and have failed in doing so. As much as it pains to say this, we should probably treat them like the team they are right now and not anymore in regards to what they have previously achieved, just like it was with NiP or Cloud9 in 2015.
Concluding this segment it is highly likely to see three out of the four favourites reaching the playoffs fairly unscarred. Only Luminosity are really endangered in their groups, but of course this is a theoretical scenario and the statistics overwhelmingly grant them a nice voyage to the quarter finals.
This all will boil down to one beautiful grand final and will surely revolve around one final question. Fnatic have had a fairly mad run recently and after their performance in Katowice we seriously need to ask us whether they can actually be stopped. Tune in tomorrow to get an attempt at answering that.
*Disclaimer: Keep in mind that these are merely predictions and should not be used as a guideline for betting on GosuGamers or on any other site. The statements here originate from statistics and previous matches and can thus not be held evidential for the win or loss of a team. The author, as well as GosuGamers.net hereby distance themselves from any responsibility in regards to betting losses.
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