By The Numbers: Race to the postseasons

 

 

South East Asia is one of the most important markets for Heroes of Newerth nowadays with Thailand being the biggest community for the game anywhere. Hence a closer look at the last cycle in G-League and the implication is well warranted and necessary. This article is not focusing on just the naked eye test, but also uses the Strength of Schedule calculation to give better insight into the situation of each and every individual team.

 

 

First off, what is Strength of Schedule or short SoS? It is a value to determine the toughness of the remaining schedule of each individual team. The calculation is very popular in American sports league like the National Football League and even serves as a tiebreaker in that league. Overall it takes the opponent's record (OR) and the opponent's opponent's record (OOR) of the past into consideration. Since the win percentage of the future opponents is more important than the value of OOR, the first value is doubled, while the OOR value is just added to that number. To break it even, that addition is divided by three - seeing as the upper part of the equation has "three" parts - done. The higher the SoS, the tougher the remaining schedule.

 

In this case the system has some minor flaws with ties being involved in the G-League, but overall the numbers add up and paint a very telling picture of the remaining schedule. However, SoS is not a crystal ball, it is merely an indication and a helping device to come to an educated decision and see the likability of a team reaching a certain goal or a certain spot in the standings.

 

 

Now with that being said, the G-League playoff race can be evaluated by certain standards and certain histories of the individual teams, but the SoS value gives a little bit more credence to the projection. In this special case, something unusual is also a part of this calculation, because of Made in Thailand.Sorry Sorry having colliding schedules with G-League and DreamHack Winter 2013. The team will proudly present the SEA region and their home country Thailand in Sweden, therefore four of their matches have been rescheduled. Two out of those four are already played with MiTH.s2y winning both - those victories do not yet show up in the standings, but the SoS evaluation of MiTH.s2y and their two opponents henn and KaiD are already considering those matches being played.

 

Classifying the playoff race even further, realistically eleven teams still have the chance to compete for the four playoff spots. Therefore Kimochi.Tt eSports and Step Gods will be evaluated in this segment as well, but their chances overall might be more than marginal.

 

SEA HoN Tour G-League Cycle 4 (8 out of 15 played)
Place		Team	W-L-T	Points
1.		Orange eSports	6-0-2	20
1.		Neolution eSports.MRR	6-0-2	20
3.		Turtle Master	5-0-3	18
4.		Made in Thailand.Sorry Sorry	4-0-4	16
5.		Air Quality	4-1-3	15
6.		Anti Moon Queen	4-3-1	13
7.		iMpunity.Earth	3-2-3	12
7.		iMpunity.Storm	3-2-3	12
7.		henn	3-2-3	12
10.		Kimochi.Tt eSports	3-4-1	10
10.		Step Gods	3-4-1	10

 

As mentioned above, Kimochi.Tt eSports and Step Gods are included in this race, but might not have a realistic chance after all. Not only are they six points behind MiTH.s2y already, they are also looking at the toughest remaining schedules of all fifteen teams. Step Gods has by far the toughest schedule ahead of them, Kimochi.Tt eSports placing second on the SoS rankings. That coupled with MiTH.s2y already having two additional wins in the bag, the focus might shift to a comparison with Turtle Master as next in line - extending the deficit to eight points already. It's mathematically still very possible that KcTt or 5tep makes a playoff push, but realistically their chances are marginally at best.

Much brighter is the projection for Orange eSports and Neolution eSports.MRR, who are already sitting on top of the standings. Orange eSports might not have the easiest of schedules left, but the most dominating team of the first three cycles has shown more times than not, that they can handle tough tasks. The team around MrGhost is undefeated during the regular season, has only ten ties to their resume and already a five point cushion over the first non-playoff spot. The fifth toughest schedule left might be a cause for concern, it shouldn't give anyone in the organization major headaches though. The same can be said for Neolution eSports.MRR, but with a brighter SoS than Orange's. In that ranking MRR is looking at the fifth easiest remaining schedule and the previously mentioned five points clear of the fifth place. Every single indicator points at a fourth consecutive playoff berth for both those teams.

The same can be said for Made in Thailand.Sorry Sorry, although it would be only their third postseason appearance. The DreamHack competitor might look at the standings right now and think they are in trouble, but they really are not. The six points they have already as an addition and the third easiest schedule with the disbanded Open House Party as the finishing point is all they need to know to make a compelling argument for their playoff case. Really, the only team in real trouble might be Cycle 1 Champion Turtle Master.

Right now the three point cushion over Air Quality, the five points ahead of Anti Moon Queen and the sixth points ImpE, ImpS and henn are away might look comfortable, the numbers and schedule indicates otherwise. Not only is TurM facing four of those five direct competitors in the next few days, but they are also looking at the fourth toughest schedule of all remaining teams. Among the top competitors this is the hardest, only beating by Anti Moon Queen in terms of playoff race. The Malaysians have a harder road ahead of them, but rAq, henn, ImpE and ImpS don't.

The benefiting teams here might be Air Quality and potentially even henn. Both of those teams have an easier remaining schedule compared to the rest of the teams in this group. Air Quality has not only the benefit of only three points separating them from the playoffs - not counting MiTH.s2y in this logic - while being in the middle of the pack in terms of SoS. It's not the easiest remaining program in the world, but it's easier than the one of TurS, aMq and both iMpunity squads, making this a prime opportunity for the young Thai team to pounce on their first playoff spot. The odds are only better for henn, although they will be held back by the loss against MiTH.s2y in one of the rescheduled matches. Still their playoff campaign is very much alive with the second easiest schedule of any team in G-League. Four out of their last six matches are against members of the bottom five in the league - No2e, KaiD, Open House Party and SuperNova eSports. Overall those four teams have a combined record of 28 losses, one tie and only three victories making it very much possible that henn is scoring those 12 points. With them they would be doubling their current score and get up to 24 total points, which is only a bunch short of the projected playoff mark somewhere around 26 or 27 points - with two matches still left to play. The Thai team might not be the most shining prospect, but the numbers are supporting a strong finish of the team that might become a very important factor in not only the playoff race, but also the ranking race. 

 

Strength of Schedule Playoff Race
SoS Rank	Team	SoS Value
1.	Step Gods	0.643599924
2.	Kimochi.Tt eSports	0.604069344
3.	Anti Moon Queen	0.556092648
4.	Turtle Master	0.553308048
5.	Orange eSports	0.535881753
6.	iMpunity.Storm	0.524786324
7.	iMpunity.Earth	0.507826087
8.	Air Quality	0.502753737
9.	Neolution eSports.MRR	0.450732254
10.	Made in Thailand.Sorry	0.430555555*
11.	henn	0.392160012*

 

Race for the SEA Grand Finals

This race here might be even more intriguing than the actual playoff race, although it's part of it. To give a little perspective, here is the important portion of the rankings after three cycles.

 

SEA HoN Tour Rankings (After 3 Cycles)
Place		Team	Points
1.		Orange eSports	8500
2.		Neolution eSports.MRR	7000
3.		Made in Thailand.Sorry Sorry	6500
4.		Turtle Master	6250
5.		iMpunity.Earth	4000
6.		bRix	2800
7.		Anti Moon Queen	2500
8.		Open House Party	2250
9.		Air Quality	2150
10.		Insidious eSports	2000
10.		iMpunity.Storm	2000
12.		Step Gods	1750

 

In this case the first five spots are already secure and only the order is really in question. The stats or the numbers of SoS are not equipped to answer any seeding questions, since those answers will ultimately be given in the playoffs. This being said, should either Air Quality, Anti Moon Queen, Step Gods or iMpunity.Storm reach the playoffs, they are a lock for the top eight automatically. Just the playoff berth alone grants 1500 points and sixth placed bRix is already out of D1 only recording 200 additional points. They will be stuck at 3000 points, praying and hoping for only two teams to even come close to that mark. 

The most emphasis here should be on the trifecta of Air Quality, iMpunity.Storm and Anti Moon Queen. Step Gods chances with a tough schedule ahead and needing to place around the 5th or 6th place to be relevant for this race - which is very tough to accomplish facing teams like Orange eSports, Turtle Master or Neolution eSports.MRR in the next couple of days.

In the end it all boils down to the three teams, two from Thailand and one from Malaysia. Anti Moon Queen has the best chances in this debate, not because of their remaining schedule, but because of the 500 point cushion they have to iMpunity.Storm. In order to hold on to their spot, the Malaysians just need to stay in close proximity to ImpS and they are golden. If ImpS summons the strength and reaches the 5th or 6th place in after the 15 rounds, aMq would stay ahead of them in the rankings by merely placing 8th - if ImpS fails to reach those highs and just gets the 7th or 8th place, aMq would hold on to their spot by just placing outside of the demotion ranks. No matter how tough aMq's remaining schedule is, the third toughest in the entire league, but the potential of them dropping all the way down to the 9th place simultaneously to iMpunity.Storm fostering a winning streak propelling them to the 5th or 6th spot are thin.

Far more likely is that iMpunity.Storm will overtake Air Quality at the end of the day. Well, to be fair, it's not much more likely, but the potential and the odds are better in this race. Air Quality's remaining schedule is only marginally easier than iMpunity.Storm's, but the young Thai team has a three point cushion over NoVa's squad. This means as a matter of fact, that ImpS needs to gather four more points out of the last seven matches and they are at least over Air Quality. In the previous segment it was discussed, that Air Quality might have a legitimate chance to reach the playoffs, making all those scenarios a possibility, but not setting them in stone. Anyways, while Anti Moon Queen has enough of a lead over ImpS to be able to fall up to two spots behind them, Air Quality doesn't have that luxury. The current rankings have only 150 points between the two teams, limiting the margin of error to a minimum. 

The way the point structure works is, that the 5th and 6th spot are awarded 1000 points, 7th and 8th place gain 750 and from 9th all the way down to 12th only receives 500 points. This structure already shows that the different segments have a 250 point cushion, showcasing the precarious situation of Air Quality very good. If they fail to make a playoff push they need to be ahead of ImpS or at least in the same segment with them to hang on to the razor thin cushion. 

Another possibility and probably the one with the biggest chances of turning into reality is that not just one or two of those teams reach the final eight, but all three make it. The way the rankings are shaped up right now, bRix is stuck at 3000 points, but aMq, rAq and ImpS all have the chance to break that score or at least tie it. aMq just needs a finish in the top eight of this cycle to close that deal, Air Quality and iMpunity.Storm both need to grab a spot in the top six. In that case rAq would move past bRix, while ImpS would exactly tie the score of bRix. At that point it would come down to tiebreaker scenarios, which are really hard to project and predict in this G-League.In a tied up situation, the officials would most likely schedule a deciding match between the two tied teams - which is hard to project right now. So this mathematical construct is a possibility, but might ultimately not lead iMpunity.Storm to the promise land with an extra match on the horizon.

All these scenarios are within the realm of possibility and might happen one way or the other, but according to the Strength of Schedule thesis of this article, the iMpunity.Storm project would not quite cut it in both races. The focus of this comes down to five teams fighting for the 5th and 6th spot. In this race three teams are the protagonists, while ImpE and henn don't really have much to win. They could turn into nice allies for either rAq and ImpS taking valuable points away from the other.

 

Strength of Schedule Ranking Race
SoS Rank	Team	SoS Value
1.	Anti Moon Queen	0.556092648
2.	iMpunity.Storm	0.524786324
3.	iMpunity.Earth	0.507826087
4.	Air Quality	0.502753737
5.	henn	0.392160012