Fnatic finished the regular season in sixth place and were the heavy underdogs going into their quarterfinal match up against the third place Team Vitality. After their fantastic finish in 2015, where they won both EU LCS splits and made it to the semifinals at the World Championship, Fnatic made big roster changes having to replace three of their players. The expectations were high for the new Korean top-jungle duo of Noh "Gamsu" Yeong-jin and Lee "Spirit" Da-yoon. Spirit was considered the best jungler in the world for parts of 2015 while on Team WE in China where he was the focal point of the team. Having to hard carry games while on that team due to a lack of talent, Spirit built up a tendency of playing selfishly, taking farm and kills for himself to facilitate his playmaking. This habit carried over into his play during the season on Fnatic as he struggled to coordinate with his lanes and was taken advantage of by enemy team’s for his aggressive and selfish play. Gamsu was somewhat underwhelming during the season as well and played much better on tanks than on the carry champions that were in the top lane meta. Fnatic also had to change supports midseason, adding Johan "Klaj" Olsson to the roster to replace Lewis "NoXiAK" Simon Felix. Klaj’s play improved over the course of the season, but his positioning and decision making has been questionable throughout making him a liability at times. Fnatic had shown some ability to rotate and make smart decisions but often got in their own way and suffered because of it.
The meta shift towards more tank top lane champions and carry junglers helped Fnatic immensely in their quarterfinal matchup. Gamsu excelled on tank champions and Spirit was able to make a huge impact on champions like Kindred and Graves. Meanwhile, Lucas "Cabochard" Simon-Meslet, who had been the best top laner in Europe during the regular season, was limited due to the ineffectiveness of carry top champions and was forced onto less impactful tanks. Fabian "Febiven" Diepstraten was also able to step up his play in the series and dominated Erlend "Nukeduck" Våtevik Holm in the mid lane. Fnatic looked like they had a great grasp on the meta whereas Vitality seemed to have failed to adapt correctly. Fnatic was able to exploit Vitality’s lack of adaptation and won the series convincingly, 3-1.
G2 were a surprise to everyone coming into the season with the breakout performance of rookie midlaner Luka "PerkZ" Perkovi? and the stellar play of their Korean import, Kim "Trick" Gang-yun in the jungle. PerkZ won the Outstanding Rookie award while Trick was crowned the MVP of the Spring Split. The duo was excellent at coordinating to gain leads in the mid lane which allowed them to roam around the map and tower dive their opponents. This would snowball gold leads for the team which they used crush team-fights. At times the team was a bit too aggressive with their tower diving or team-fighting, resulting in their few loses, but overall the team was very coordinated.
The meta shift that has facilitated the improvements for Fnatic will also greatly benefit G2. In the top lane, Mateusz "Kikis" Szkudlarek, has been at his best while playing tanks. He has usually lost lane but holds his own and does not give up free kills while Trick and PerkZ terrorize the rest of the map. His stability in the top lane in the midst of a carry top meta was a key component of G2’s success. This new tank top meta that enables carry junglers even further should only work to boost the effectiveness of G2’s style.
The key matchup in this series will be between the two jungle-mid duos. Febiven showed fantastic form in his quarterfinal match up and Spirit was much more impactful, but there were still times when it looked like communication broke down between Spirit and the rest of the team. He still showed some moments of selfish play, although their frequency was greatly diminished. On the other hand, PerkZ is a rookie and this will be his first ever playoff series. He was the best mid laner in the regular season but he will have to show up when it counts, in the playoffs, to truly cement his status as an elite player. His synergy with Trick was much better than that of Febiven and Spirit, and that will also have to carry over to ensure G2’s success. Klaj was still showing some shaky positioning at times during the quarterfinals but Fnatic was able to work around his flaws in their last series. Glenn "Hybrid" Doornenbal has been one of the better supports in Europe while on G2 and has been much more impactful and consistent than Klaj. Klaj will have to up his play for Fnatic to have a chance to succeed. Despite his inexperience, I feel that PerkZ should be able to stand up to Febiven in the mid lane. Trick has been much better than Spirit this season and that should continue as well. The top and bottom lane matchups are not that far apart in my opinion and I believe G2 has the advantage in the jungle-mid matchup, and that is why I am picking G2 to win the series 3-2.
Prediction: G2 over FNC, 3-2
Statistics and Match Histories from oracleselixir.com and lol.esportspedia.com
Images from LoLEsports, Riot’s flickr account, and G2esports.com
