'Over-saturation' and 'viewer fatigue' are often terms thrown around the Dota 2 community - but are they even real and how is it measured?
For the last six months, we have been immersed in Tier 1 Dota 2 events. Since January there have been three DPC tours, three Majors, two DreamLeague Seasons, and Riyadh Masters. That includes matches played in six regions, tie-breakers, group stages (double for DreamLeague), play-in seeds (for Riyadh Masters), and playoffs for each.
That's a whopping 2,486 games played.
Those matches included about 14 of the same teams at any given event with a handful of other teams popping in and out.
And let's not ignore that the same two teams were playing in the grand finals time and time again.
Image courtesy of Liquipedia
Whew, no wonder we have seen players taking time off for mental health issues and breaks.
But what about the viewer?
If there was ever a time to complain about over-saturation it would be now— almost 2,500 games played and that isn't even counting the more than 1,000 games played in Division II of the DPC or any tier 2/regional events.
On top of the high volume of matches, there are scheduling issues for viewers to contend with; (multiple) group stages with numerous streams mean having to pick and choose which games to watch live and which to catch up on later in order to see all the action. Riyadh Masters' games were covered on 44 different channels, including official studio channels and community caster streams.
So how would over-saturation and viewer fatigue be measured?
If they were real facts, it would surely reflect in the viewership numbers, right?
According to the reports by Esports Charts, peak viewers, average viewers, and total viewed hours for Bali Major were all lower than other Majors in the season. The drop in Average Viewers resulted in a decrease in Hours Watched, with The Bali Major 2023 being 22% weaker than the Berlin tournament and 32% weaker than the Lima tournament.
Image courtesy of EsportsCharts
But that snapshot doesn't seem to have the entire picture in view.
It wasn't just this season. Bali Major had the lowest viewership in the last two years.
Although the production value of Major events is often scrutinized and criticized, there were significant delays and broadcast interruptions due to lag, infinite pauses, and even the internet provider dropping.
In addition, the timezone was unfavorable for Western viewers. The event was dominated by Europe. None of the SEA teams made it to the playoffs stage. After Execration and Blacklist International fell short of a playoff seed from Group A, Bleed Esports was also eliminated out of Group B.
Then, we have Riyadh Masters.
The event in Saudi Arabia was the last of the big events, after a marathon of Dota 2 matches and before The International Qualifiers.
And that seems to have pulled in even more viewers, not less.
Image courtesy of EsportsCharts
The tournament in Riyadh surpassed all DPC events in terms of Peak Viewers with about 16% more (approximately 80K viewers) than the ESL One Berlin Major 2023.
This would suggest that over-saturation and viewer fatigue is a myth, an urban legend. It's not real and can't hurt you.
Or can it?
According to our Dota 2 overlords, over-saturation and viewer fatigue do exist and they can be harmful.
Valve just announced a format and schedule change for The International. In an effort to make TI more accessible to viewers at home and those who want to attend the tournament in person, Valve has moved all games at TI12 to weekend days in October.
A live competition is always more exciting when people can watch it as it’s actually happening, not hours or days later, and we wanted to make it easier for more people to do that.
Clearly, broadcast viewership numbers are not the only metric available, or used. Valve may have used feedback from community members and analysis from sponsors or other key stakeholders, or some other method of measurement.
So if you, like Valve, feel like over-saturation and viewer fatigue are real, perhaps even experiencing it first hand, may we suggest go wash your face?
If that doesn't help, then don't forget that the season is long, and missing a qualifier, a match, or a group stage here and there won’t ruin it.
And TI will now be weekend-warrior friendly.
