Disclaimer: Keep in mind that these are merely predictions and should not be used as a guideline for betting on GosuGamers or on any other site. The statements here originate from statistics and previous matches and can thus not be held evidential for the win or loss of a team. The author as well as gosugamers.net hereby distance themselves from any responsibilities in regards to betting losses.
Click here for results, VODs and all the other information
This event really boasts a star-studded list of participants. From Luminosity Gaming, who, since their member swap, have climbed to the top in a swift fashion and are considered a top ten team now, to Astralis (former TSM), probably the most consistent team in regards to keeping their top five spot, all the way down to the underdogs, SK Gaming, who have really shown enormous improvement in the last months.
Others, such as G2 Esports and mousesports for example, have experienced a shocking performance drop-off after recent roster changes. Ever since Dennis ''dennis'' Edman went over to Fnatic, the team around Mikail ''Maikelele'' Bill have struggled to maintain the level they held at the last major, where they pushed over Virtus.Pro and almost got into the finals, closely failing out to Team EnVyUs. Mousesports have dropped their in-game-leader Fatih ''gob b'' Dayik in an effort to bring more firepower into the team, again swapping in Timo ''Spidii'' Richter. Shortly after, they were crushed embarrassingly as the totally underpowered enemies of Lounge Gaming a tier-two team, that should not have had an advantage of this extent in this matchup.
It remains to be seen, however, the teams may have changed and prepared for this tournament, but from a statistical point of view, there are some predictions to be made.
Group A – Two clear favorites, but nothing is decided yet
SK Gaming will be competing against Natus Vincere in the first match, and are already facing one of the three favorites for this entire tournament. SK were able to present some very decent results lately and their amazing run at Fragbite Masters should not be forgotten, but the question is whether this will be enough to challenge the CIS squad. But, coming in handy, is the BO1 format of the initial group stage matches, because that always gives teams the opportunity to create a one-map upset and in general every mistake will be punished more, as there is no rematch possible and it really comes down to the maximum of thirty rounds.
Judging from recent performances, the second match of this group is not hard to predict. It is just incredible how Luminosity have fought their way to the very top, and the struggling G2 is just no match for them. Admittedly, a one-map-upset is not that far from reach, but again we are here to explain the statistical chances of either team. And this is LG’s game to take, by more than just an arm’s length.
Concluding this group, Na’Vi and Luminosity are likelyto get out of this group with one or another taking away the winner’s match, but, whoever loses out there should nonetheless have a clear shot at advancing through to the consolidation final.
Group B – The consistent, and the unpredictable favorite
This group particularly is very interesting to look at. First of all, we will see the Danish brawl coming down, as Dignitas are to face Astralis, the unfought champions of the domestic scene. This tournament serves a beautiful opportunity for Dignitas to prove themselves again, as they have had mediocre success after their recent roster changes. It would be beautiful to see them beat Astralis, V.P or at least mousesports, but judging from the previous performances, there is no significant chance. The fact that they have not fought many top level teams in recent time comes to their disadvantage, and their obligation to face one of the most consistent teams in the top five area does not help either.
Virtus.Pro have not been playing officially ever since December 7 of last year. It is quite hard to now predict how they will show up. It will be a matter of the training time they had and how much they have invested into the game in that period of time, in order to now get out of the game. But it is possible that they have used this time to make some major changes in the internal setup and could come up with totally new positioning and many new tricks up their sleeves, which they would probably not use against mousesports, because their raw abilities and standard plays should serve more than enough to wreck the weakened German team.
The dropping of Fatih ''gob b'' Dayik as an IGL is a really dangerous step to make, because firepower is only effective when a strong and calculative mind sits behind it to make a play out of it. It remains to be seen how they have now adapted to this new setup. Will they use their coach to lead them, will a single player take it over again, or will they try with all-calling, like G2 in their early stages?
Ultimately, Virtus.Pro should overpower them quite convincingly, and alongside Astralis they will most surely advance out of the groups.
The playoffs are rather hard to predict. Whilst V.P’s abscence from CS:GO lately should not be a significant factor against mousesports, it could prove either fatal or a miracle against the other favorites. Trying to predict a definitive outcome here is near to being impossible and no statistics can be held up to give anybody a clear shot.
Pictures taken from: aftonbladet.se, wiki.teamliquid.net
