It’s two days before we crown a world champion as the BlizzCon weekend approaches. On Sunday evening, the best card-slinger in Hearthstone will fly back home $100,000 richer, the world cup in hands.
For several players, their story is already over. To nobody’s surprise, the two Taiwanese players Tom60229 and FrozenIce – who were also the ultimate darkhorses in a tournament stacked to bursting with notable names – waved BlizzCon goodbye. UK youngster from Team Dignitas Greensheep also had to part with the dream of becoming world champion after having likely the worst luck of his career.
The bigger surprises would be the elimination of RenieHour in Group B. Labeled as one of the best players in South Korea, a notion supported by his third place at WEC and being the only Korean to make top 8 at CN vs KR Masters 2, RenierHour’s elimination came in two swift losses to Nicolas (1-3) and Tarei (0-3) which halved South Korea’s representation in the world finals, leaving only Kranich in the run for the big money. Now, one could argue that Golden Coin’s captain drew the short straws in his opponents but the facts are different. Which brings us to story number one coming into the Worlds weekend:
1. Kaor’s Cinderella story
Nobody really believed in Kaor until a few days ago. This is not an overstatement. The Italian was a no-name player coming from a no-name team. It was not until the BlizzCon EU qualifiers that people actually learned about his existence, not to mention he shouldn’t have even been there in the first place and it was only due to Theude’s and Noisyboy’s forfeitures that Kaor was brought in as a replacement, given the gift every pro player dreams of.
Even though Powned.it’s player packed an extensive background in Magic: The Gathering and WoW TCG and slalomed through his opponents to earn a BlizzCon ticket, his performance in Stockholm was shaky and unconvincing. Players and Hearthstone experts – yours truly included – predicted that Kaor would be one of the lambs for the slaughter come BlizzCon finals. After all, he had to share a group with Tarei, the killer of TidesofTime; Nicolas, one of China’s most consistent players; and RenieHour who many said was Korea’s finest representative, having proven himself at WEC and CN vs KR Masters.
Today, Kaor sits on top of Group B and is guaranteed at least $7,500 for his top eight finish. He’s gone where the likes of Kolento, DTwo, Firebat, RunAndGun and Numberguy – names who are yet to play their deciding group matches – might not reach.
People like to say that this is Hearthstone, that luck is a big factor and that anybody can beat anybody on any given day. I think these arguments kind of fall apart when you’re a quarter finalist at the World Championship.
2. China marches West
Four games remain before the group stage is completed and three of them have a Chinese player battling a westerner and China is the only region together with North America all of whose representatives are still competing for worlds.
These results show just how far China has come compared to its state in the early days of Hearthstone. A year ago, the region was that nerdy kid with school who bullies beat up to take his lunch money. The numerous attempts of China to do well against the west in the couple of “Masters” series organized by 2P back in the days ended up with the Asians going home empty handed, the defeat at the hands of Europe especially severe.
This was when China probably figured out the west is too ahead of it still and the red flags decided to train and compete on an Asian level for the time being. They won the CN vs SEA Challenge in June, taking on one of the smallest scenes in the game and making its first step towards some recognition. What helped them more were the two CN vs KR Masters seasons by OnGameNet, where MagicWind and Nicolas secured the back-to-back victories for China. From one of the few Asian tournaments broadcasted to the western audience, China made its statement: we’re not all thrash and we’re ready to march west.
Today, China might very well eliminate some of the absolute fan favorites at Blizzcon. In Group D, RunAndGun meets previous world #1 player Kolento, the player who’s considered by many to be the next world champion, and if he succeeds, the Cloud 9 ace will be sent packing. For the fans of Kolento, though, RunAndGun’s 3-1 defeat from StrifeCro and the harder-than-it-should’ve-been win over tournament underdog FrozenIce communicated the Ukrainian is still the favorite here.
US heroes Tarei and Firebat are also on the edge of elimination, threatened by Nicolas and Qiruo, respectively. Firebat already swept the Chinese 3-0 earlier in the group stages so his chances are good on paper but for Tarei this will be the first meeting with Nicolas. A big question mark is upon that match-up.
3. Should StrifeCro and Kolento really close BlizzCon and how awesome would that be?
It’s no secret that for western fans of Hearthstone, the Cloud 9 mirror would be the appropriate conclusion to the world finals. For months on end, Kolento and StrifeCro have been the poster boys of the two presumably strongest regions in the game. They’ve won tournaments, created a massive following and written their own storylines, richer than all other present at the world championship.
The latter is a large part why any other grand final would be pale before the Kolento/StrifeCro duel. Though North America and Europe have created numerous heroes of Hearthstone, few or even none of them managed to qualify for BlizzCon. Bar Kolento, Europe sent aspiring players and no name who although good are more difficult to cheer for. North America is supposed to be the better represented region but even tournament-proven names like Firebat and DTwo lack a decent-sized following.
In a recent interview with GosuGamers, Andrey “Trolden” Nolden said that if a Taiwanese player would win BlizzCon, what would be disappointing, even if he deserved it. I tend to agree. A grand final is not all about skill, not always. It’s also not talking who deserves to win and who doesn’t – after all, a $100,000 check is a bigger indicator of that than the words of a Hearthstone writer – but about how the ode of Worlds ought to end.
A Korea versus China final would be cool in its own way, but I’m wondering how many of our readers actually wish for that. I don’t.
Class stats from BlizzCon after opening weekend
4. How will class stats develop
“The meta is like a circle, there is no dominant deck at the moment,” said DTwo in an interview with GosuGamers’ Nick “Dorazion” D’Orazio during the opening weekend. How right IHU’s player is!
Even if one goes just one month back, he’ll find how dynamically class trends change. During Viagame HouseCup, Hunter, Warlock and Rogue dominated the win-rate charts, creating a meta very reminiscent of the pre-Naxx days. Just a week later at SeatStory Cup, Shaman was top of the class with an incredible 68% win-rate, pushing down Hunter to fourth place.
Looking collectively at recent online tournaments like Heroes of Cards 2 and Battle of the Best, we see another huge swing that continues the trend of a circular meta. The king of SSC 2 Shaman is now on the bottom with 38% while Priest skyrockets to #1 with 67% win-rate. Hunter and Warlock are still up there but Rogue has plummeted to 7th place with 44% win-rate after being top 3 in the last two offline events.
During DH Bucharet, Hunter finally took the top of the win-rate charts after struggling to climb there for several tournaments in a row, although one can argue this is not really a meta shift and rather players being silly and not banning Gaara’s Hunter.
So far at BlizzCon, Mage is queen of the win rates but with only four games played that’s more of an anomaly than anything else. If anything, the high win rates and high popularity of Hunter, Rogue and Warlock indicate that they might rule the day at the end of the tournament (again).
That’s unless Tarei wins everything and restores the faith in Jaina.
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