Cloudtemplar's Thought on Group Draw
translated from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSEkJWhwvf8&t=1s
This is an introductory video to Worlds. I will not get into details into each team but talk more as a group. An analysis on each team will come later. This one will just be a quick and simple introduction to each group(in only about 47 minutes). For a detailed analysis on each team, that will happen later maybe when the groups are finalized?(When playin is over)
Think of them as the king of OPL. They won basically everything in OPL got first place in Spring and became the representative of OPL. They are a solid team, solid performance... They are not very aggressive but seek to punish enemy's mistakes. They are kind of similar to Damwon. They are a Top side focus team with bot lane;s role of just being solid. Don't be too serious about the Damwon comparison they are just a team like Damwon that plays around top side.
But realistically speaking it is not going to be easy for them to get out of group.
Turkey might be a familiar name to many people. It is where a lot of Korean players went. Right now it is Kakao and Snowflower as the Korea player in the team. They also have Zeitnot, Bolulu, and Armut. GBM is also the coach of the team. They are okay but the chance of them winning is a bit low.
Brazil is an aggressive region. They like to fight and skirmish but also makes a lot of mistakes. To put in a bad way you can say that they fiesta a bit too much. So it is kind of hard to say if they are strong.
As for Legacy, SuperMassive, and INTZ they are okay and there are definitely good things to talk about. But there is a big difference between these three team and Liquid and MAD. I think Legacy is the better team out of the three if I have to say.
Team Liquid(NA 4th #3):
Team Liquid are famous for their Impact and Mr.Corejj. Mr. Corejj have shown us great performance and continues to do so in Team Liquid. But if I have to describe Team Liquid's playstyle is that they are very defensive. Barrier, Turtle, it is a very slow and "slimy" team. To be honest I don't hear a lot of good things about Team Liquid. They win against the team they should win and they lose against teams they should lose.
MAD Lion(EU #4):
When people talk about Mad Lion they often talk about their bot or Shadow. Yeah they are a "strong team". When they were good they made some insane plays. But their games wasn't very stable/consistent. I personally think Mad Lion would be at a higher standing than Team Liquid because I like team that have a higher high than consistency.
If you think Team Liquid and MAD Lion will make it out then you probably are safe.
So LGD is the fourth seed of LPL and from that fact alone they will probably make it out. This is how good LPL have become as a region that LGD will probably get out the group just because they are from LPL. But compared to other LPL team they are not a very outstanding team. They are a bit inconsistent but it is still enough to get out of group.
PSG Talon(PCS #2):
So PCS are consisted of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia. It's like a major region but also it is also not a major region. Unfortunately River and Tank, jungler and midlaner of PCS Talon are unable to come play during playin. And I believe some of the coaching staff also wasn't able to go. So they had to advance to the group stage in order for the full roster to play.
So LJL is the Japan region and most people probably were expecting DFM. And it wouldn't be weird if DFM came but it was V3 that was able to advance. There are some Korean players here. Bugi played on Flashwolf a while ago and he showed a great performance in the final. Some are probably hoping for Sengoku Gaming for Pirean and Blank but anyway it was V3 that was able to advance.
To be honest, the LJL region is hard to be called a strong League. If you look at the games the game speed is either really slow and/or they generally have a lot of things to work on. I think there will be a big difference between them and the major regions.
Unicorns of Love(LCL):
So we have Unicorns of Love who showed an okay performance as a team considering that they are from a minor region. You might recognize some of the players' name. I think we even did an event with them...
They are a really Okay team. They are decisive, they like to dive a lot. However there are some mistakes that are enough to make a difference between them and the major regions. But they have a shot to get 2nd.
They struggled a lot. They struggled all the way from here... There are too much things to talk about. Today it's just an introduction/brief summary. let's do teams in detail later.
Group B: Prediction
LGD is basically guaranteed to be first. Then it would be... Unicorn of Love? I think PSG Talon also have a shot but V3 and Rainbow7 will probably not.
Cloudtemplar here talks about the Group Stage format. Please check the World Format Change at the top for the information.
No Matter who comes up from Playin I think Sunning and G2 are pretty comfortable with the group.
The scariest thing about G2 is their final final form. We always talk about SKT's form in the finals. I think G2 is a team that gets better over time. They are kind of like a chameleon adapting as they go. They are really scary but at the beginning, they are a bit shaky. So if G2 got a bad group it is actually more dangerous for them than you might think. I think this group is perfect for G2 to get their form up while training.
They are a really strong team. We don't want to admit this but every team from LPL are strong. There is no LPL team in Worlds you can dismiss. I would say there are 90% chance G2 and Sunning goes up. As for the 10% it would be if Team Liquid came to this group and play a slow but solid games. But it is only 10%.
Hmmm... So Team Liquid reminds me of old SKT in a good way and in a bad way. What I mean by old SKT is that they play slow but also able to explode(in a good way), good team fight, plays control deck, and always slow to Meta change.
LCK vs LCS rivalry
So I said this before but I will........ kind of admit LEC and LPL is on top. But I will never let LCS be above LCK. If that happens... I can't take it anymore. That is our last pride that we have to protect. That is my World's goal. Out of the four main region we will always be at least third place...
I feel like I am dissing NA too much XD. I am not dissing them it is just that from looking at their games you can see the strength of the region. For people who watched all the League[Not sure if he meant all league or just major] not everyone might shared my thought but there are a lot of things lacking in NA.
How Cloudtemplar Judge a team
So how I judge a team is really simple. It is how "hard" I get from watching the team. NA just doesn't do it for me.
Let's talk about Machi Gaming that might make Team Liquid's hope and dream a bit harder. Gemini is a player that I casted a few time. He is a really talented jungler with great mechanics. As the first seed of PCS they have a certain level of quality but just not enough against the other two.
So this is the group Damwon is in with JDG, Rogue and maybe Team liquid. Let's assume the worst and assume Team Liquid is in the group. The group looks actually quite difficult. Like, my top 3 teams in World is: Damwon, JDG, TES. and top 4 would be +G2. I don't think this is an unpopular opinion and it is the template for many people's top 4 teams. Having two teams in top 3 in a group will always make things difficult.
JDG and TES is a very strong team. Some might disagree but I think you will change your mind after watching their recent games especially the JDG vs TES series. Their team fight, objective control are out of this world. I don't want to get too much detail but just know that they are a really strong team.
So Rogue is also in this group. You can't really dismiss any teams from LPL or LEC. And from what I see Rogue is a pretty strong team. They do sometime randomly throw at mid-late game but their laning phase are solid. And their top XD.
So Rogue's top laner is called Finn. He did have some good games and he can be good but... Recently he has been doing really badly. His cs was pretty bad too. Sometime the cs difference... just happen at top. Thankfully the team covers for him and he is pretty good at tank champions. But most importantly rest of his team are pretty good.
So Yes Rogue's top might struggle, like he have to lane against Nuguri and this and that. Internet have already did all the matchups so I won't do it here. But if top is able to hold on its own and Rogue's bot are able to carry then Rogue is a pretty scary team. And then you have to add in the potential of Team Liquid so this group is a really tight group.
That being said I think Damwon and JDG will come up. I am 80% confident of this and 15% confident of Rogue and I will give 5% to Team Liquid.
So there is a lot of analysts that describe JDG as a Kanavi one man team and that JDG depends on Kanavi. I personally disagree. Yes, Kanavi is a main threat and the team play arounds him especially LvMao. I think this narratives started because people perceive their mid to be weaker. So their mid laner is Yagao and despite him showing great performances. He is often compared to players like Knight and Rookie. So he often seems to be underwhelming which is why the spotlight is often on Kanavi. When a certain player get attention the other players often get less attention.
That being said I agree that Yagao is a bit underwhelming XD. I think Yagao is good but compared to Knight...
Zoom is another important player. If you look at Kanavi's pathing he often paths to Top first. His synergy with Zoom often allow him to get first blood and snowballs from there. They don't have a weak lane and combined with their great Macro and Lvmao-
So do you guys MSC where we said that compared to LPL LCK's jungler and support a bit lacking? LPL's jungler and support are really great at playmaking. Anyway JDG is a good team.
This is not the worst group GenG could've been in. Why? Because TSM is in the group XD. All jokes aside I have respect to TSM and to LEC but it is just that LPL's first three seed are so strong dodging one is a great advantage.
This group had probably the most interesting narratives/stories. TSM and Fnatic goes way back to season 1 and has great stories. GenG if you include SSG then also have great narratives. And LGD is LPL fourth seed. Of course in terms of achievement GenG(SSG included) are probably the most impressive but TSM and Fnatic goes way back. Players like Doublelift and Reckless have withstood the test of time and overcame many hurdles. Ruler too also withstands the test. The narratives at bot will be crazy.
CloudTemplar's history with Doubleliftu
For people who don't understand how impressive that is imagine Me(cloudtemplar) are still playing as LCK representatives. That is how crazy that was, like Doublelift was playing when I was playing. I personally played against Doublelift an insane amount of time. Like we scrimmed like crazy together about 8 or 9 years ago. We practically begged them for a scrim waiting like a hour or two just to have a chance to scrim against them. "Ah God of League, from the country of Freedom and League of Legend please spare us some knowledge." It was really hard to get scrim at that time.
I know a lot of people are excited to see Bjergsen's Zilean and such. The process of TSM coming here to be honest was a miracle. They had to overcome many things to qualify. For people who doesn't know C9 are suppose to be here. Everyone expected to see C9 advance to World. C9's performance till Spring was extraordinary. But their performance dropped when Summer came.
Fall By Summer
This kind of story happened in many regions too. FPX/IG in LPL, T1 in LCK, C9 in LCS. Maintaining form is very hard. It is a bit unfortunate that they couldn't come but I mean this is a sport these kinds of things happen.
I think 90% GenG will definitely get a spot. Not sure if 1st or 2nd but GenG will almost always get a spot. I think right now it is Fnatic> LGD >TSM. I am not looking down at TSM but by watching their games and assessing their power level I think this is true. In terms of win probability it is kind of like: Fnatic(45%) > LGD(35%) > TSM(30%). Ah shoot sorry I can't do math(It adds up to 110%)... Ah Whatever you guys know what I mean.
I trust GenG. To be specific I trust GenG's bot lane. GenG Top is solid but compared to other tops it is quite even. But GenG's bot lane is probably the strongest in the group and bot lane is the best lane to snowball. Why? Because it has two people.
Do I really need to say anything? TES is a really strong team. Maybe it is because of Knight but the team as a whole is really scary. Even Yuyanjia who is not as good as compared to other LPL support like LvMao, got better recently. Even support who is considered the weak link are solid. It is a team where there is no weak lane and they have an insanely strong Mid lane.
MAD & FlyQuest
So I talked about MAD Lion a bit. I think they have a chance but the chance is not that high. Interestingly FlyQuest isn't that bad. Although they are not the first seed I think from the games I think they are the best team in NA. They are a very solid team with great balance.
So DRX had been getting a lot of bad ratings. It is not like they played bad the whole season but that recently they didn't do well. A lot of attention has been Chovy and how he had been carrying the team in their recent wins. This technically isn't wrong. It is true that when the team was struggling Chovy with his massive plays(and balls) was able to carry the team. But people have to remember that when DRX gets going they are a really strong team.
And even if DRX is Chovy's Team it isn't that bad. Why? Because League of Legend is a Mid lane game. People then would say- we are derailing but whatever- that I said bot lane is the best lane to snowball. Yes, because there is two people. But if you ask which one player have the most influence in the game then it will be the Mid Laner. If Chovy can continuously carry while other players get back on form then DRX will be a strong team.
Group D Prediction
So DRX and TES will probably go up. In terms of win probability, it will probably be like: TES(40%), DRX(40%), FlyQuest(15%), MAD(5%). However, if we are comparing TES to DRX I think TES is a stronger team.
Anyway, this is a great draw for LCK. If nothing goes wrong all LCK will go up and will at least reach top 8. And personally I think they can all go top 8. Top 4 is a different story but today let's enjoy. Let's cherish this moment.
It is better than last year. And the God of TFT told me they would at least reach top 2. And we all know mathematic + superstition = 100% accuracy.
What if LCK win World
Cosplay: I don't know what, I don't know how, but I know if LCK win World I will do a cosplay. Details to be decided.
Will Spend 5,000,000 Won[4,255 USD]: I don't know on what, I don't know how, but I will spend 5,000,000 Won on something. Maybe a crazy giveaway? I don't know we will see.