Edit: See /u/IAmGrza's comment here. 2nd place summer points have now been updated to 100 from 90. I have updated the scenarios to the best of my ability, the changes were not very widespread
Hi everyone! Yesterday after my post I was contacted by Chris Greeley to inform me of a rule change that was pushed out at the end of the day. 3rd and 4th place, which were previously worth the same 55pts, are now worth 70pts and 40pts respectively. This has changed the scenarios pretty significantly.
Champion points can be confusing, so here's a breakdown of each team from NA that can qualify for worlds, and their path to do so. Here is the updated breakdown:
| Team | Spring Points | Min. Summer Points | Min. Point total | Max. Point Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TL | 90 | 40 | 130 | 190 |
| TSM | 70 | 20 | 90 | 170 |
| C9 | 40 | 40 | 80 | 140 |
| CLG | 0 | 20 | 20 | 100 |
| CG | 0 | 20 | 20 | 100 |
| OPT | 0 | 20 | 20 | 100 |
| FLY | 40 | 0 | 40 | 40 |
| GGS | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| EF | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Position Values
| Place | Spring | Summer |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 90 | AQ |
| 2 | 70 | 90 |
| 3 | 40 | 70 |
| 4 | 40 | 40 |
| 5-6 | 10 | 20 |
| 7-10 | 0 | 0 |
| Source: Leaguepedia |
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Team Liquid:
Team Liquid still has the easiest path to worlds, and the updated rule for 3rd/4th place points only impacted their chances slightly. They are still carrying 90 points from summer, and can earn at minimum 40 points if they lose both their semifinals match and then the 3rd/4th place match. If TL lands in 3rd or 4th place then they can be threatened by TSM and C9 for points. TSM can kick them into the gauntlet by either losing in the finals or by winning 3rd place over them. If C9 loses in the finals and TL places 4th, then C9 will win the tiebreaker due to earning more points in the summer split, regardless of record. If TL performs better than 4th place, they will automatically qualify for worlds as, at best, TSM can tie them. If TL lands in 3rd then they will still qualify, unless TSM makes it to the finals and loses, in which case TSM will own the tiebreaker due to earning more points in the summer.
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Cloud9:
C9’s chances at point qualification were significantly impacted by the rule change. They are still in better positioning than others, bringing 40 points over from spring and earning at minimum another 40 this summer due to their semifinal bye. However, they no longer automatically qualify for worlds if there is a TL/C9 final. TSM can now earn 70 points for a 3rd place finish, which will push them over the maximum 130 that C9 would earn for 2nd place. In order to auto qualify in a TL/C9 final, they need TSM to get 4th place or worse. With 2nd place points updated to 100 from 90, C9 will auto qualify for worlds if they make finals. Even if TSM reaches third, they can at best tie C9, which C9 owns due to more points earned in summer. If C9 and TSM both make it to finals and C9 loses, then C9 will need TL to come in 4th to not get bumped to the gauntlet. If neither C9 or TSM makes the finals, then C9 needs to get at least 3rd place to prevent TSM from auto qualifying, assuming TSM wins their QF match.
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Team Solo Mid:
This rule change has Regi’s money all over it. With these changes, TSM could now qualify on points even if they lose their quarterfinal match to Clutch. Although TSM’s minimum point values haven’t changed, both TL and C9 can now earn fewer points if they land in 4th place. Firstly, if TSM makes finals then they auto-qualify. They also qualify if they place higher than C9. They must win their QF match to qualify off of points.
EDIT: I previously stated TSM can qualify even if they lose their QF, but this is not actually possible. Here's an explanation: If CG beats TSM then TSM will have 90 points. They need TL to win it all, and they need C9 to land in 4th to get less than 90. Then one of CLG, OPT, or CG needs to beat C9 to earn 70pts, and the other loses to TL in the final, earning 90 to tie TSM. This tie is first broken by points earned in summer, not by summer split record like previously thought. Therefore the team coming in second and tying TSM would qualify instead of them, 90 summer pts vs 20 summer pts.
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Counter Logic Gaming:
Although CLG has played a strong summer split, even playing a tiebreaker over a semifinal bye, they still have a tough road to worlds due to their poor spring split. Previously, CLG had to win the split to avoid the gauntlet. These rule changes actually benefit them slightly by creating one scenario in which they could qualify on points. This scennario is: CG beats TSM in the QF, then TL chooses and beats CG in the semifinal while CLG beats OPT in the QF then C9 in the SF, and then CG beats C9 in the 3rd/4th match. Under these exact circumstances CLG will automatically qualify for worlds by either beating TL or taking 2nd to tie TSM in points, and winning the tiebreaker off summer record. Any other circumstances, including if TL picks CLG for semis instead of CG, would result in CLG being forced into the gauntlet. Furthermore, they could still be eliminated from the gauntlet if they lose to OPT and CG wins over TSM.
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Clutch Gaming and Optic Gaming:
CG and OPT are in similar enough situations that I will lump them together. They are both carrying 0 points from spring and have a maximum of 90 100 points. That said this rule change did help them, as they each could potentially qualify based on points where previously they either had to win it all or win through the gauntlet. They can only qualify on points by losing in the final to TL and C9 placing 4th. For OPT, TSM must also lose to CG. This also means that if TL chooses either OPT or CG in the semifinals, then they cannot qualify on points, as they would need to beat TL to earn enough to beat TSM, and by beating TL not winning finals then they would have the most points. One of OPT, CG, or CLG will be eliminated from the gauntlet. If both OPT and CG lose their respective quarterfinal matches, then OPT will be eliminated due to CG having the better summer split record. If OPT wins and CG loses, then CG will be eliminated as CLG has the better record.
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FlyQuest:
Flyquest is locked in for the gauntlet, as their 40 points from a stronger spring guarantees that they will at least have more points than one of OPT/CG/CLG. They will play in the first match of the gauntlet against one of those three, while another of that group is disqualified.
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Golden Guardians, Echo Fox, and 100 Thieves are all thoroughly eliminated. They cannot qualify for the gauntlet.
Another note for the LEC fans - I will do a similar style of post in two weeks when their standings are locked, assuming I still have some free time kicking then.
