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Hearthstone9 years agoRadoslav "Nydra" Kolev

HouseCup #3 graphed: A statistical report


Full HouseCup #3 coverage

 HouseCup #3 is in the books. One of Hearthstone’s most unique tournaments happened over this weekend and crowned Adrian “Lifecoach” Koy as its grand champion after he prevailed in a narrow 4-3 series over Cong “StrifeCro” Shu.

While there were many great games and even more exciting decks, the beauty of HouseCup lies elsewhere – its pick and ban phase and the dynamic metagame it creates. With much more depth added to each series, players are able to fine-tune each of their decks to play a specific purpose.

Here's how does the HouseCup draft works:
 

  • Each player brings 9 decks, one of each class
  • Each player bans 1 class of his opponent
  • Each player then picks 2 classes for himself
  • Each player then bans 2 classes of his opponent
  • Each player then picks 2 classes for himself
  • Each player then bans 1 class of his opponent
  • Each player than picks the remaining 1 class

 

Before we go to the results and numbers of the draft, however, lets look at what the players actually prepared.


For many classes, the prevalence of one archetype over the other is natural and expected. Rogue, Paladin and Priest have limited number of viable builds and that especially shows with Rogue. All sixteen Rogue decks were Oil builds and the only one that at least somewhat stood out was Stanislav Cifka’s [card]Gadgetzan Auctioneer[/card] Oil which cuts out the standard [card]Sprint[/card] for the best deals anywhere.

The second least diverse class was Paladin. Most of the builds were midrange-y and differed in a few cards only. Some chose to have [card]Seal of Light[/card] on its 2-mana slot, others like Stanislav Cifka cut out [card]Lay on Hands[/card] for [card]Guardian of Kings[/card] but the general feel of the builds were always that of a “slow midrange”. The stand-out singletons are Lifecoach’s control Paladin which almost exclusively uses utility and responsive minions in the mid-curve and Immortal’s Dragon Paladin. Oh, brave Chinese soul, we thank you for bringing [card]Dragon Consort[/card] to a high-profile tournament.

To be honest, popular classes like Druid weren’t even that diverse either, the major differences being how many copies of [card]Force of Nature[/card] do they run (most of the cases – two). Kalaxz and Rdu were the only players who tried to build something different, going for token druid and ramp, respectively, but neither of them made it out of their group.

A lot of the high-tier classes, however, had a pretty nice distribution of their archetypes. Take Warrior, for example, which sees a 10:6 Patron to Control ratio, which is more balanced than I actually expected, especially in a metagame where piling on is the new standard. Warlock is almost evenly split between Zoo and Handlock as well, and even Combolocks got some love.

A lot of the high-tier classes had a good distribution of their archetypes.


Although it was anticipated for Freeze Mage to be a dominant pick in HouseCup #3 as it benefits hugely from the pick/ban system, only half of the players brought it to the tournament. The other eight are evenly split between Mech Mage and – curious enough – Flamewaker tempo. Whether or not the latter is a stable tournament deck or it's more of a gimmick that wins games due to the surprise factor remains to be seen be seen but with players like StrifeCro favoring it over their favorite Freeze does speak volumes.

In the Hunter department, the Midrange builds are almost extinct, which is something worth pointing out. Granted, the deck loses almost 100% of the time in the Hunter mirror but it still packs good win rates against Freeze Mage, Handlock and Zoo, which were one of the most popular decks in the metagame. Instead, players chose to make compromises and most went for the Flavor of the Month hybrid Hunter, a build that combines the voracity of [card]Leper Gnome[/card]s and [card]Glaivezooka[/card]s with the scary bodies that are [card]Loatheb[/card] and [card]Savannah Highmane[/card] because why not have the best of both worlds?
 


Data gathered from 20 draft phases


When we asked pro players to predict the HouseCup #3 metagame, most expected Warrior to be one of the most banned classes. They were right. And not just that – Warrior was so highly sought after class that it was either banned or picked in the first phase of the draft. In the extremely rare cases that it wasn’t, it was banned during the second ban phase. In fact, the Warrior was never left open until the second pick phase, further showcasing the strength of the class, and Grim Patron in particular, at the moment.

When you're stuck playing Paladin or Priest, the last thing you want to worry about is Freeze Mages.


Because Warrior was often the first off the list, players flocked to two other strong classes – Warlock and Druid, the first and second most picked classes during the first pick phase. The reasons behind those choices are different for each of the two classes. Druid is a class that doesn’t reveal any information about a player’s line-up and strategy. It’s a strong class which can win almost every match-up if it [card]Innervate[/card]s or [card]Wild Growth[/card]s into tempo swings. More importantly, HouseCup #3 do not adhere to Conquest rules and the winning deck can stay and is out if it loses. This brings us back to the days of the all-kill format, a format of which Druid was king. Unlike Conquest where Druid can be easily targeted by line-ups like Mech Mage/Zoo/Shaman, here the risk does not exist and that made Malfurion a popular pick.

With Warlock, it’s a mixed case of the strength and diversity of the class. An early Warlock pick cannot be countered before it is scouted, which makes it a very desirable class in the opening stages of a tournament. A player not only needs to know if he’s playing against Zoo or Handlock, but exactly what build of Zoo/Handlock he’s facing. Information is everything in a game like Hearthstone and in the absence of it, classes like Warlock flourish.

As for Warlock’s strengths, the numbers speak louder than words. The class is not only the most picked and the most played overall, but it’s also sitting on 56% win-rate.

Going back to hated classes, Mage also drew a lot of bans to the point where it’s the second most banned class overall, and not that far behind Warrior. Even though it’s been mostly neglected in the first phase of the draft at the expense of the Warrior/Warlock/Druid trio, Mage was often a ban-target in the second phase.

Similar to Warlock, Mage’s strength lies in part in its diversity as all of its builds require different strategy if they’re to be beaten, but that’s more to the class than meets the eye. It was expected that the predominant Mage build would be Freeze Mage, and Freeze is a deck that destroys Priests and Paladins which are the first and second most picked classes between the second and third phases of the draft. That’s a phenomenon that’s not that hard to predict – when the good and solid classes are either banned or picked, players have to go to the “chaff” of Hearthstone. If you’re going to be stuck playing Paladin or Priest, the last thing you want to think about is Freeze Mages ruining your day, hence the timely bans on Jaina.



Above: HouseCup #3 class stats. Below: Class stats from all tournaments in the last 30 days.
 

OK, let's get one thing out of the way - Priest is not overpowered for having 63% win-rate. It just played a handful of games and happened to come out with a positive record. It happens.

There's not much to say about the top winners. Druid, Hunter and Warlock performed well as they've been doing since the launch of Blackrock Mountain. If we disregard the Priest anomaly, Druid is in fact the most winning class not only at HouseCup #3 but in the last month of competitive play as well, having 57% and 56% win-rate respectively.

Druid, Hunter and Warlock are the best winning classes, just like they are in all other tournaments.


Hunter and Warlock follow Druid in HouseCup #3, just like they do in all other tournaments, showing that while the popularity meta might be a bit more different between Viagame and traditional events, the consistently good classes remain the same. The notable win-rate discrepancies are with Shaman and Paladin. Decks like Thijs' and Lifecoach's anti-control hard-counters Shamans helped the class rise to 47% win-rate which, although still quite low, is at least higher than the blobal 38%. 

While the HouseCup format helped Shaman, it brought down Paladin hard. While in Conquest Paladin can be a hit-and-run class and one that performs well in a format where you can't predict its coming, it's the other way around with HouseCup #3. There, the winning players must always announce his class to his opponent and in those cases a Paladin pick easily puts you on the spot, as its very easily countered. At the same time, the classes Paladin is supposed to have good win-rates against, like Druid and Control Warrior, were either banned or performed excellently against it in spite of what numbers show. And unlike Priest, the absurdly low win-rate of Paladin in this tournament wasn't an anomaly, with 20 games played, Paladin is the fifth most played class of HouseCup #3 and the worst to perform with 5-15 record.

At the end of this report, let's sum it all up:

 

  • Druid, Paladin and Rogue show just how few viable builds they have
     
  • Not everybody brought Patron Warrior, so get off the hype train
     
  • Midrange Hunter is dead, long live the Hybrid
     
  • Hunter, Mage, Shaman and Warlock had a good distribution of archetypes, showing class diversity
     
  • Warrior is all the rage as the most contested class during the first pick/ban phases
     
  • Warlock and Druid are the most first-picked classes because everyone is busy banning Warrior
     
  • Players ban Mage because they don't want their Paladins and Priests destroyed
     
  • Druid, Warlock and Hunter continue their high win-rates tradition, just like in other tournaments
     
  • The HouseCup format helped Shaman a bit...
     
  • ... and drove Paladin to the ground
     
  • If you bring a Dragon deck to a tournament you won't pass the group stage...
     
  • ... but if you have a Shaman with [card]Clockwork Giant[/card]s you will win the trophy
     
  • #JustHearthstoneThings

 

 

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