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StarCraft 211 years agoRadoslav "Nydra" Kolev

Ready for playoffs? SKT vs STX SouL preview

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SK Telecom T1

Coach: Lim "Boxer" Yo Hwan

Position: #4
Series stats: 22-20
Map stats: 134-122 (+12)

Longest win streak: 6 (Round 3 + Round 4)
Season all-kills: 3
Highest round finish: 2nd (Round 3)

The stars

All photos by Kevin Chang / Team Liquid


Korea  Rain

Proleague record: 36-19 (65,5%)
Proleague rank: #3

The highest ranked SKT player after the Proleague regular season, Rain is certainly the player where his team's hopes lie. Although the year didn't start particularly well for the Protoss ace, his recent performances shot him back to where he was at the end of 2012, namely racing for the title of best Protoss in the world.

While Rain's prowess in PvT and PvZ is unquestionable and he will likely be the player to go against Innovation should any series come down to an ace match, his Protoss mirror is right around the 50% edge, which makes him a bit unreliable again STX in particular, in whose core are Dear, Trap, Classic and Mini. Furthermore, Rain has just three PvP wins in his last ten matches so it might be wise for SKT to not rely on him in PvPs in particular.


Korea Fantasy

Proleague record: 28-23 (54,9%)
Proleague rank: #10

To his fans' disappointment, Fantasy is just not the player they were used to see in the BroodWar days. His transition to StarCraft 2 has been rough and though he's shown more than a few good games here and there, overall his performance has been average at best. 

Fantasy's best match up as of currently is TvZ which is a double edged sword for several reasons. First, STX SouL have never been too reliant on their Zerg line-up to win games. Second of all, the only Zerg that will most likely be called for STX, namely Hyvaa, dealt Fantasy an embarrassing loss in the OSL, showing he's not afraid to prepare cheeses and all-ins with the sole purpose of denying Fantasy a late-game scenario. To put it in short, although he's been the face of the BroodWar SKT alongside Bisu, Fantasy will not be having a fun time this weekend. 


Korea Parting

Proleague record: 13-11 (54,2%)
Proleague rank: #23

A lot has been written about Parting since the talented Protoss first broke out on the scene so he's a player who's extremely well known across the community. In 2012, PartinG was sitting on top of his race with two world championships behind his back and ridiculous PvZ and PvT match-ups.

In 2013, however, things are a bit different. The changes to the ZvP match-up brought Parting down to 40%, stripping away the aura of invulnerability he had last year. Although his vT is still on a high level, PartinG will likely be used to shut down the Protoss line-up of STX SouL, having in mind his 73% win record (64% in Proleague games). He will also likely be the ace player for SKT should STX decide to go for Dear and not Innovation

Team overview

Compared to the beast it was in BroodWar, Boxer's team has definitely not been the best in StarCraft 2 and short of Rain and PartinG (the latter of whom not even an original KeSPA player), the faces of the team have not been delivering results to match their reputation. Those unconvincing performances thus reduce the otherwise ridiculously deep roster of SKT to a line-up of players who are very much beatable. Their Terran squad is pretty much Fantasy and their Zerg line-up with the exception of soO is still, as tradition commands it. Overall, SKT's hope is with its Protoss line-up which outside PartinG and Rain also has Bisu and BeSt, two players who are constantly improving and can really make a difference in a series.

Additionally, with the exception of rounds 1 and 3, SKT have faced incredible struggles performing and even finished last in round 2 and seventh in round 6, just barely making the playoffs at the expense of Samsung KHAN. Weird is at may sound for a team which has ruled to Brood War Proleague so many times, SKT do look the weakest team in the playoffs. 


STX SouL

Coach: Park Jae Seok

Position: #3
Series stats: 24-18
Map stats: 126-106 (+20)

Longest win streak: 6 (Round 4)
Season all-kills: 6
Highest round finish: 1st (Round 4)

The stars

Photos: Daily eSports (Innovation, Classic), Kevin Chang / Team Liquid (Dear)


Korea Innovation

Proleague record: 37-19 (66,1%)
Proleague rank: #2

To the audience not following Proleague but individual leagues only, STX SouL is Innovation. Since the launch of Heart of the Swarm (and shortly before that even), Innovation has been on a constant rise, finishing second in WCS KR S1 and first in the S1 finals and is sure to play in the WCS Korea playoffs for the fourth time in a row.

As of July 2013, Innovation is without apparent weakness. Every single match-up of his is near flawless, his TvP hitting the ridiculous 81,8%, meaning he single handedly denies the strongest part of the SKT roster. His TvZ is legendary as well and it is only TvT that might be a problem (if 67,7% win rate allow for problems at all), though there aren't enpugh Terran mirror masterminds in SKT on his level. Innovation will likely be the player to open for STX SouL, giving them a "free" early lead, as well as be the go-to guy should a series come to an ace m


Korea Dear

Proleague record: 24-17 (58,5%)
Proleague rank: #13

Aside from one trip to MLG Summer, Dear has not had enough individual league appearances to be known to the wide SC2 public but that's all fine because in Proleague, he is a beast. The second best player on STX stats-wise, Dear is currently 13th in the rankings and the seventh best Protoss in the Proleague, leaving behind such renowned names like HerO, PartinG and herO[join].

While Dear is quite the well-rounded player in terms of match-ups, he's most likely to be used as a PvP weapon against Rain and PartinG or someone to shut down soO, seeing how he's beaten him twice in Proleague already. In the odd chance of STX going into ace match and not calling for Innovation, Dear will also be the player to likely step as a kind of a surprise m


Korea Classic

Proleague record: 15-9 (62,5%)
Proleague rank: #20

To understand how crucial Classic is to STX SouL, one must ignore the overall statistics above (which include WoL matches as well) and look at the Heart of the Swarm numbers only.

Since the launch of the expansion, Classic is undefeated in PvT and PvZ with 8-0 total and is 4-3 in PvP to make for the mind-blowing 80% win rate in Proleague HotS. Which means that if they so desire, STX can release him wherever they want and he will likely deliver.

Realistically, though, Classic will likely stay away from the Protoss mirror in this series. Although he's beaten Rain and Bisu in HotS, historically PvP has been his weakest match-up and with SKT's Protoss line-up training extensively for the match-up, Classic would better serve as someone to deny Fantasy and soO. If absolutely necessary, however, he might also be the one to play the "lesser" Protosses of SKT like BeSt and the aforementioned Bisu. 

Team overview
Looking from the top, STX SouL look similar to SK Telecom. Their power lies in their Protoss and Terran line-ups with the Zerg one a bit undeveloped but all in all they look stronger in most aspects. Next to Innovation in the Terran portion is Last, an OSL top four and MLG top eight finisher, who although not on the level of Fantasy is certainly someone capable of ruining the day for SK Telecom. The Protoss line runs even deeper and outside Dear and Classic there are also Mini and Trap, the latter of whom is within hand's reach of OSL playoffs. Only the Zerg line-up is equal in strength to SKT's, Hyvaa being the only Zerg likely to be called to action. 

 

Game 1, Saturday, July 13th, 05:00 CET
Korea InnovationPlanet SKorea BeSt
Korea DearBel'Shir VestigeKorea Rain
Korea MiniNaro StationKorea PartinG
Korea ClassicAkilon WastesKorea Fantasy
Korea HyvaaFighting SpiritKorea soO
Korea TrapWhirlwindKorea Bisu

Head to Head statistics:

Round 1: SKT 4:3 STX
Round 2: SKT 4:2 STX
Round 3: SKT 4:2 STX
Round 4: STX 4:2 SKT
Round 5: SKT 4:3 STX
Round 6: STX 4:2 SKT

In overall head to head, SKT are in 4-2 advantage (20-18 in maps), though in Heart of the Swarm it is STX who are in the lead with 2-1 (11-8 in maps), which makes this a match almost impossible to predict. Both teams have lined-up their very best so the series will be all the more even.

STX are likely to open with a victory as Innovation is miles ahead of BeSt but Rain and PartinG will have a chance to bring it into SKT's favor. From there on, it can go either way. If Fantasy beats Classic and breaks his 100% PvT win-rate, SKT are likely to take it home as STX will have to fight the psychological effect of being two games behind. If the teams are equal by the end of the fourth set, however, we might be in for an ace match as both Hyvaa and soO as well as Trap and Bisu are equally matched. Going into game seven, however, is not something SKT would want as they're likely to face Innovation who will be more than prepared to play either Rain or Parting. SKT's biggest hope is in the hellbat-nerfing patch which will arrive before the playoffs and is to "nerf" Innovation according to his own words.

Overall, if past history is to be considered, we're in for at least six-game series all the way.

Prediction
Korea InnovationPlanet SKorea BeSt
Korea DearBel'Shir VestigeKorea Rain
Korea MiniNaro StationKorea Parting
Korea ClassicAkilon WastesKorea Fantasy
Korea HyvaaFighting SpiritKorea soO
Korea TrapWhirlwindKorea Bisu
Korea InnovationNewkirk PrecinctKorea Rain

 

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