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Forums \ Strategic forum \ Theory of surplus. Basis of timing.
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FT.aCt)Arch0n-
Theory of surplus. Basis of timing. (1911 reads, 35 replies, 1 year ago)
Theory of surplus- What is left over after spending minerals on neccesities.


Example: When you start off with a nexus- If you continnue to make probes consistently, surplus will increase every production round so that at 8 supply you will have a 100 mineral surplus to make a pylon. This is why a pylon is made at 8. Not because it is a random number but because the surplus through consistent production of probes allows a player to create a pylon at 8. Following surplus(if you two gate zealot) it'll time out so that your first gateway is built at 10 and the second at 12. 10/12 gate is a surplus build. What this means is, if you did this build 100 times the timing of the build and the moment of gate production will always be at 10/12- As long as you never halted the production of probes.
This is an important idea even though the example above is in its simplest form. If build timing is consistent through the use of surplus spending , then this means that all builds have a consitent timing.
If you 2 gate zealot and consistently pump probes from your nexus (and units from your gates), surplus will allow you to expand around the same time every game. The timing isnt exact but it is plus or minus 10 seconds no matter how many times you do it. There is a margin of error because people make errors.
A 10/12 surplus expansion will always come between (plus or minus 10 seconds away from 4:40) 4:30 to 4:50. Expanding is not a random time. It is controlled by the strength of your surplus



-Surplus idea-
Consider that every probe increases the strength of an economy exponentially. At 8 supply you will have fewer probes than at 12 supply and because of this every consecutive production round will be stronger than the last. If you build off surplus, eventually you will have units building from your nexus and gateways and be left over with 400 minerals. Since everything that can be done is being done, that 400 minerals is surplus. At 10/12 your surplus will be very weak because at that moment it is only strong enough to make probes and zealots. With every probe added onto your mineral line the strength of your surplus will increase. At 41-43 supply your surplus will be at 400. Surplus allows you to expand-The same way it allowed a pylon to be built at 8 supply. It allows an expansion in a 10/12 gate build to always come between 4:30-4:50



-surplus fact-

If you surplus spend without fighting till you max, you will max out with 5 groups of unit and 80 probes. I read in another dossier that korean pros have 27 probes per expansion. However, the person who wrote that dossier did not understand why.

Observe- 27 x 3 = 81

Pros do not count their probes. Through building off surplus you will max out plus or minues 10 probes from 80. You could macro 500 times off surplus and you will always have between between 70-90 probes(plus or minus 10 away from 80). The closer to 80 the stronger you macro and less mistakes you made.
----------------------------------------------------------------


If the timing of macro and expansion is consistent, then the timing of builds are also. I dont know many people whole argue that timing in this game doesnt exist but I've never met a person who has linked timing with surplus. Surplus spending can be used as a measure of timing



Example on Lost Temple. (simplest form)
If a protoss builds off surplus and 2 GATE GOONS into ROBO BAY, and a terran builds off surplus and ONE FACTORY into STARPORT (drops) each of these builds possess's a surplus timing. Game timing can be different because of mistakes, pressure or low econ pumps but if both builds were done without fighting or influencing factors they would both have a consistent surplus timing.
Surplus timing in this situation dictates that the drop in a one fac starport will cliff a protoss expansion before the toss can stop it. 2 tanks take 30 seconds to kill a nexus. Coincidentally the travel time from main bases to an expansion's cliff are mostly 30 seconds. Travel time is slightly greater at far positions.
Knowledge of a map and surplus timings can improve a person's game. If a protoss comes into the game with the knowledge that a 2 gate dragoon build into a robo bay (shuttle) does not out time a one fac starport than he can adapt to the terran build(the shuttle is out when drop ship is but the travel time will kill the toss expansion before the toss can drop onto the cliff and save his base). In this case he'd have to one gate robo into shuttles to save his expansion.
Timing is hard to see consistently because of the many time-altering factors in this game:mistakes, low econing (non surplus building) attacking, loss of units. This is an explanation of timing from a protoss player's perspective. Terran players can also judge timing in this manner but it is more difficult for a zerg to do so because they do not make workers the same way.
The example of surplus used to measure timing are vast. If every build has a surplus timing and surplus expansion timing then understanding this game and the importance of builds becomes easier. You begin to see a build as a means to alter timing to either get a tech sooner or to counter a tech.This ability is important in all match ups.
As a protoss, my ability to understand my surplus timings and that of my opponents is what makes it possible for me to guess builds. Guessing builds is not 100% accurate but if you view a match up through the idea of surplus timing you begin to understand that your opponents options are limited by his surplus. So are yours. He can only do so many things at once. In early game your ability to do one thing takes away your ability to do another
If a zerg builds 2 hatch muta and lurker tech early his macro will not be as strong as it would in a 3 hatch build. This is because the strength of his economy can only handle so much early. Early game surplus is weaker than late game surplus and becuase of this you have to use your builds to be efficient.
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1 year ago
#1
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Nimue
one small problem with your surplus counting is this:

81 probes on 5 different patches will produce much much more surplus than 81 probes on 3 patches.

also, you bring many examples, of surplus determining expansion times and what not. However, one very important is that you are assuming the gates, or nexus keep producing constantly. if the protoss cuts probes, for instance, it's 9/10 gates instead of 10/12. If the gates are left empty for a small while, the expansion can very well come at 25 supply (if, lets assume, the zerg decides to be too sunk-heavy)


otherwise, you make some pretty good points. I'll umm, read this more when I'm not asleep
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1 year ago
#2
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lammas
Nice writing but doesnt really tell anything new about anything in my opinion nor help anyone to improve his play.
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1 year ago
#3
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smidaemon
rading this i was worried u had given away a secret i had known for quite some time, then i thought hey this will probably be better for everyone. then i read the two posts below and already these guys are brushing off gold. tsk tsk. great post. you've explained something in an eloquent way that i have been fumbling to explain to some friends for some time, anyone that ignorantly brushes this off is missing out on something great here.
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1 year ago
#4
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HelloWorld
Great post but you forgot on average of 8-10 patches, the maximum surplus can be calculated. 3-4 probes per patch would make it so the patch could not be mined any faster but then again, thats probably why you did the 27 probes per expo = 3 per patch = ~Max input of minerals.
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1 year ago
#5
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Lord_of_Chaos (StarCraft Editor)
Notice how almost all popular standard builds has a certain surplus counted in to them. With P, you will with almost every build soon recieve enough minerals for an expansion, even when producing fully.

Let's say you go a triple gate build vs a zerg, this is really the maximum amount of gates you can have running from one base and still be able to expand withoug cutting production. While it's a lot slower to get the expo compared to dual gate BOs, you will soon get it anyhow.

Compare this to a four gate build. Now the P will not get any surplus to use for an expansion, but is completely commited to finish off the zerg from one base. If it fails he's in big trouble. What he can do is to cut production to allow an expansion. However, the build still centeres around dealing damage from one base, because if you at first produce non-stop from four gates, and then completely stops production to be able to expand you are really much better off doing non-stop production from three gates.

What I'm trying to say is that all normal builds today builds up a surplus as a margin which you can use if you are not able to kill your opponent early, ie if your opponent does not die in the first phase of the game you will be completely screwed if you have not collected a small surplus. A build completely neglecting this surplus becomes completely reliant on a single strike, ie a do-or-die strategy. What we also call a cheese.
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1 year ago
#6
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omgwtfbbq
Or all-ins.
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1 year ago
#7
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NrG.Shiney
Why my post was deleted?

Who cares? Play the game..
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1 year ago
#8
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FT.aCt)Arch0n-
You guys are talking about the difference between surplus spending and low econ. Low econ builds and pumps... alter the timing of surplus builds because they are no longer in surplus. I didnt mention that in the dossier because low econ vs surplus spending/timing can fill up pages of explanation and I wanted to write something simple people could follow. I really liked the comments on this tread. Lord of chaos, I basically said the same thing you said but without the examples. Nimue heh I was talking about surplus spending and using it as a measure of timing. If you take expansions out of surplus it alters timings. The point though....is that you understand that and in understanding you have a basic guidline of the timing of builds. If all builds have a surplus timing you can use that knowledge to guess builds and to counter them. If a person low econs it alters timing but if u have an understanding of timing from the builds you use you can adapt and make the neccesary adjustments because you know what is normal and what isnt. Its the difference between normal time and something out of time(low econ).
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1 year ago
#9
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lammas
But you dont have to know anything about surplys to be able to gues your opponents builds and counter them. Anyone above C rank iccup does that yet none of them has heard of this concept. This is why I feel this dossier isnt on the top of the list of usefull strategy posts.
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1 year ago
#10
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FT.aCt)Arch0n-
An analogy is knowing goons own rines vs understanding why. If you know why its a greater understanding than just copying builds you saw somone good do but dont do well yourself. It is important. It separates the players who copy peoples builds and starts vs the people who truly understand what is going on.
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1 year ago
#11
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lammas
But you dont have to understand theory behind it to play correctly. Ive tried 3rax m&m vs 3gate goon a few times and Ive learned it doesnt work. I dont have to understand any theorycraft to learn from my mistake and stop using 3rax m&m vs toss. Also I think that even if you do know everything there is to know about surplys you cannot without trying know for sure what works and what does not. So if you still have to try and fail to know it doesnt work - even with your theorycraft surply knowledge - what do you gain with this? If you have to play just as much as anyone to gain the same knowledge wheres the profit? Also to me it is all the same if I truly understand whats going on or if Iam a monkey who has no deeper understanding at all and who is only able to copy builds and click fast as long as I win (not to mention that after copying builds for 2000 games you have learned all timings and counters without any theoretical knowledge). Creativity and strategy in sc are so totally overrated.
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1 year ago
#12
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iLLusioN.ReW
And that my firend, is why you will never be truely good at this game.
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1 year ago
#13
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lammas
The great and most facinating observation of yours that Ill never be truly good does not quite surprise me because I dont play sc anymore. However nor will he wont ever be truly good either. Nor will you. Nor will 99% of ggnet users. But the reason why most of you will never be truly good is not your inability to understand strategy deeply enough. No, it will be your inability to macro and micro and multitask effectivly enough. "Deep enough" strategical knowledge is archieved far more easily than truly great macro, micro and multitasking. And for the strategical understanding required you dont even need dossiers about theorycraft, you learn it just fine after several thousand games and replays.
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1 year ago
#14
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Lord_of_Chaos (StarCraft Editor)
To be able to innovate and adapt to weird strategies you need to have an understanding about why things work and why they don't. If you are content with only copying other BOs and never coming up with your own, then this understanding of the game is unnecessary and sure, you can become a damn good player anyway.
You can get good in these fields:
Macro
Micro
Multitasking
Timing
Strategy/Understanding

It's true that from only copying BOs and so on, you can achieve greatness in the four first. But if you can get good at strategy too, why not? Why does it hurt? It doesn't. And you don't lose out on the other four by improving your strategical understanding either.

lammas, if you aren't interested in deeper strategical anylsis, that's completely your own choice. But then we don't need to hear it.
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1 year ago
#15
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lammas
You dont want to hear opinions yet you have a forum? You dont need to know about peoples opinions in improvement in sc but you have this section called "strategic forum"? How facinating. btw deep strategical analysis is one thing (Iam very intrested in that) and theorycraft that does not improve ones play at all is another. Anyways if you didnt happen to notice I pointed that you do learn strategy without having any idea of surply concept just as well as you do with it and that you dont need it to be a good player. This was my main point, not that you would not need very deep strategical understanding to be good (which is also true).

but now Ive been sounding so negative and shitheaded, it was nice writing and effort anyways
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1 year ago
#16
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Varrius
Which strategy discussion is useful to whom is a matter of opinion on each individuals part. To come here and say that any strategy discsussion (I don't recall seeing any limiting tags on this forum) is useless is bm, IMO. I don't particularly find the surpluss discussion all that practical myself either, but it does help understand BO's a little more and potentially allow me to make my own variations of BO's while maintaining economical efficiency.
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1 year ago
#17
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FT.aCt)Arch0n-
actually this isnt theorycraft. Surplus is very real. I called it the theory of surplus because it was my interpretation of it. I didnt write that to say it owned and that everybody would get the same things out of surplus and using it as a basis to judge timing. Timing is like other things. There are people who suck at it and some who dont. If you build off surplus your builds do have a specific timing. Its not an exact timing but its mostly plus or minus ten seconds of the builds timing. The same way a pylon will always come at 8 if you surplus spend...your expansions in all builds come at certain times. When i was testing this out me and my friends would go into a game and unvision each other. Wed play till we were maxed building off surplus and using a build. Our expansions always came at the same time or roughly the same time. We did it that way because timing is hard to see in a real game with all the time altering crap that is happening in a game(attacking, pressure, mistakes in builds, its not perfect because people arnt)Im not saying this is amazing and itll make you own. Having good macro does not make a person own nor does good micro. The ability to macro and micro at the same time is called control. Control alone wont make a person own. Its how a player puts it together and how you put it together and the ability to make good decisions based on map and situation is determined by a persons understanding and experience. 2000 games isnt enough to be experienced.
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1 year ago
#18
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FT.aCt)Arch0n-
Actually, lammas I didnt think you sounded negative. I apreciate the imput but I think you were misunderstanding what i was saying. To somone experienced this isnt goign to help them because they have 8 k games or more experience on what works. Ask them to explain timing and most people wont be able to. To a person struggling with timing and timing issues it could help them becauses its a way to judge timing. Its not the best way but its a way. Its hard to put something like this into words. Anyways thank you for posting in the thread.
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1 year ago
#19
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NrG.Shiney
Even a little kid can notice when he can afford something in game and learn when to make something, you don't need any theory. By playing the game you start understanding it and some part of the game comes automagical. Concentrate more on the strategical analysis, "why this works and that doesn't?" leave this kind of useles crap.
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1 year ago
#20
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Another_one
Some nice posts in this thread for a noob like me to read. Really makes you think about how to think when building , expoing etc. Good posts by Arch & LoC, good read.

As far as this being usefull I think it's a good piece of the puzzle if you know what I mean. To get good at this game knowing the logic behind your actions really help, instead of just knowing that it is a good action to take.

My post is a little fuzzy but I hope I got my point through .

Good posts anyway :D.
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