A game-by-game draft analysis of the Manila Masters Grand Finals between Evil Geniuses and Newbee.
In the Grand Finals of every LAN event, the meta changes and develops between the teams in the Best-of-5 series. As such, targeted respect bans are usually more important than banning the 'best' heroes in the meta. Let us look into the minds of Evil Geniuses' captain Andreas 'Cr1t-' Nielsen and Newbee's captain Hu 'Kaka' Liangzhi as we analyse the drafts of each of the four games in the Grand Finals of the Manila Masters between EG and Newbee.
Game 1:
EG started the draft by banning away two of Newbee's comfort picks – Nyx Assassin and Sand King. Similarly, Newbee replied by banning away the Io and Treant for EG. With the first pick, Cr1t- decided to go with the Crystal Maiden. Not only is CM a really good support in the current meta, it also acts as a deny pick against Newbee who places CM as a huge priority in terms of picks. Newbee responded with Warlock and Nightstalker which are comfort picks for Zeng 'Faith' Hongda and Kaka respectively. Thereafter, EG followed up with picking up the Puck, a hero that Sumail has been dominating with throughout the whole tournament. This first phase Puck pick might seem standard for EG. However, Cr1t- mentioned in an interview after they beat Team NP in the Lower Bracket Finals that they have plans to switch things up in the Grand Finals and this is probably one of the mind games that he has in store against Newbee.
Moving on to the 2nd phase, Newbee continued banning away EG's classic heroes such as Razor for Artour 'Arteezy' Babaev and Faceless Void for Saahil 'Universe' Arora. They went on to pick the Sven for Xun 'uuu9' Han (also known as Moogy) and Tidehunter for Damien 'Kpii' Chok. With the changes in neutral spawn timings in patch 7.06, neutrals/ancients stacking is becoming a big part of the meta which makes Sven a super strong carry pick. As for the Tide, it's a natural Mekansm / Greaves carrier which can neutralize the burst potential from EG's Puck. Moreover, it amps up Newbee's team fight potential by a huge amount with the Ravage ultimate. Cr1t- carried on with his mind games by picking up the Clockwerk here, giving EG the option of going standard (with Syed 'Sumail' Hassan on Puck & Universe on Clockwerk) or switching it up (with Universe on Puck and Ludwig 'Zai' Wåhlberg on Clockwerk). EG went for a 4th pick Drow Ranger for Arteezy which meant that they wanted to play a super high tempo game 1 against Newbee with their two global auras (Arcane and Precision).
Knowing that the last pick for Newbee would be Song 'Sccc' Chun's hero, Cr1t- went for a targeted respect ban on the Queen of Pain in which Sccc has had so much success on. Not falling into the mind games of EG's captain, Kaka was able to read the draft correctly and went on to ban the Medusa. The Drow + Medusa combo would be an extremely scary duo and Newbee did not want to have to deal with it. However, this allowed Sumail to get his hand on Outworld Devourer – which can become super deadly with the aid of both the global auras. Knowing how important the mid matchup is in the current meta, Newbee decided to pick the Sniper for Sccc which, in theory, is decent up against an OD.
Despite Kaka having a good read during the drafting phase, it still feels like the tempo of EG's draft might just be too fast for Newbee to handle. With the lack of intelligence stats on the Newbee's lineup, one can only imagine how scary Sumail's OD will be in this game number 1.
Draft Advantage: EG 60% - Newbee 40%
Game 2:
For game 2, Cr1t- decided to change things up by banning the Crystal Maiden instead of the Sand King. As for Newbee, they stuck to the same targeted bans as per the previous 3 games they played against EG in the Manila Masters (including the 2-0 they had in the UB finals). This time round, EG went for the first pick Phoenix in which Cr1t- had found so much success in their previous matches. Newbee instantly picked up the Sand King, one of Kaka's best heroes for the longest time. EG disregarded the second pick Disruptor by Newbee and picked up the Puck regardless.
The majority of the 2nd phase bans were the same as in game one, but instead of banning away Arteezy's Razor, Newbee took away the Drow, not wanting game one to repeat itself. Kaka picked up the Ursa for Moogy as a counter pick to the Phoenix. With Overpower, the Phoenix egg will be no more in just a blink of an eye. It was Newbee's turn to play the mind games by pulling out one of their oldest tricks in the bag – Naga Siren for Kpii. Kpii was known to be an extremely good Naga player since TI5 when he was still playing for MVP.
Moreover, the Naga sleep can be used to set up a huge Disruptor Kinetic Field + Static Storm combo which has made many highlight clips in the past. On EG's side, they went for the Nature's Prophet on Universe and Windranger on Zai. The NP pick provides EG with many things: It increases their pushing potential and also provides a +1 every time they try for a gank. Moreover, Sprout is super effective against a melee core like Ursa which is extremely susceptible to getting kited. Similarly, the support Windranger also does the same with her Shackleshot and Windrun.
EG's last ban on the enigma shows that they have fallen prey to the mind games of Newbee, thinking that Sccc would be the one playing the Naga. The Anti-Mage last ban by Newbee was a really good ban as AM has a power peak much earlier than the Naga, which usually results in the team with Naga falling too far behind before she comes online. EG opted for the Lone Druid on Arteezy as a response, a good choice for them. Firstly, LD is an extremely good carry counter to the Ursa with spells like Entangling Claws and Savage Roar.
Secondly, it allows EG to put on the pressure on against the Naga and push towers really quickly with the NP. Lastly, the LD pick gives EG the option to go extremely late game (which is usually the case against a Naga), being able to become 12-slotted. On top of that, the +420gpm level 25 talent on Puck as well as the 0 cooldown Teleportation on NP are additional tools that might have allowed EG to contest Newbee in the ultra late game as well. Lastly, Newbee went with the last pick Lina for Sccc. On top of her excellent counter-pushing abilities, Lina is extremely good against Phoenix with the Fiery Souls stacks and is able to help focus down any hero with huge amount of magical burst.
Both teams focused heavily in counter-picking each other in the draft of game 2. However, the surprise factor of Kpii's Naga might just be enough to give Newbee a slight drafting advantage in game 2.
Draft Advantage: EG 47% - Newbee 53%
Game 3:
The meta continues to develop throughout the series with many of the bans and picks mirrored from the previous matches. Newbee had first pick in this game and went ahead and picked their staple hero Sand King for Kaka. EG picked up the Puck as usual, but paired it with the Warlock this time round. The Warlock enables EG to amplify their team-fighting prowess by a huge margin. Sensing a heavy team-fighting line up by EG, Newbee decided to snag up an early Rubick pick for Faith, expecting there to be many good spells to steal. Also, the instant lift from Rubick's Telekinesis is a good initiation against a slippery Puck.
In the 2nd phase, Cr1t- decided to throw a curveball by picking up the Enchantress, hoping to take control of all 3 lanes on the back of Zai's early rotations. Newbee got themselves Moogy's Lifestealer which was banned in the first 2 games of the series. EG responded with Arteezy's Razor which is, in theory, a carry counter to the Lifestealer with Static Link. Feeling that the initiation from SK alone might not be enough, Newbee picked up the Batrider for Kpii as a second option of vehicle for the Lifestealer.
Newbee rounded up their draft with Death Prophet for Sccc, which would be a favorable matchup against the Puck should EG choose to send it mid. However, EG decided to 1) dodge the unfavorable matchup and 2) give themselves more late game option by giving Sumail Ember Spirit and putting Universe on the Puck instead. In game 1 of their last series in the Upper Bracket Finals, EG went for the Sumail Puck + Arteezy Razor and things did not work out. It seems like Cr1t- did not want to make the same drafting mistake by putting a 'timer' on their own draft.
From the drafts, it is pretty evident that the aim of Newbee is to get a fast pick-off on the back of a LS + Bat or LS + SK infest combo, giving themselves an instant numbers advantage in the team fight. As for EG, they would want to counter-initiate with Puck + Warlock. The Death Prophet last pick by Newbee seems to be the icing of the cake for Kaka's draft as it provides the sustained damage needed after the initial burst from infest combo. Moreover, Razor wants to be in the middle of the fight stealing damage and chasing down heroes but DP prevents that with Exorcism. However, it also means that a failed team fight by Newbee will be much more disastrous as they rely heavily on the long Exorcism cooldown. Both teams have their own set of game plans to execute based on the drafts but it's hard to say who has the draft advantage.
Draft Advantage: EG 50% - Newbee 50%
Game 4:
Cr1t- decided to bring back the meta of game 1's draft by banning out Nyx Assassin + Sand King again. However, Kaka felt that the Puck was giving Newbee way too much problems (both during draft and in game) and decided to ban it out, leaving Io in the pool. Newbee probably expected EG to first pick the Io but Cr1t- had other ideas as he picked up the Crystal Maiden instead. The battle of the mind games between both captains continues into game 4 of the Grand Finals. Here are 2 main reasons why EG went for the CM instead of the Io. 1) EG knew that Newbee wanted the CM and chose to deny them the pick and 2) Cr1t- is gambling that Newbee doesn't favor picking up the Io in recent patches and they will have a chance to second pick the Io if he wants.
True enough, Newbee left the Io untouched and picked up the Disruptor + Clockwerk in the 1st phase. Disruptor is one of the best support counters to Io and Kaka was trying to make sure that Newbee were prepared should EG go for the Io. As for the Clock pick, it is a versatile pick that can either be Kpii's or Kaka's hero, leaving Newbee with more draft options. Moreover, Clock is also good in finding the CM in the back lines, cancelling a potentially devastating Freezing Field. Hoping that Sumail can carry on the momentum that he had on the Ember Spirit in game 3, Cr1t- snagged it up almost instantly for EG's 2nd pick.
In the 2nd phase, Newbee decided to target their bans towards Zai, removing the Io as well as the Enchantress. As for EG, they removed the Lina which is one of the better matchups against Ember mid as well as Kpii's Enigma in which EG fears playing against. Newbee understands that Roshan has been a heavy contention throughout the entire series and Ursa is probably the best Roshan slayer out there. Also, with the Tidehunter pick, Newbee hopes to deter EG from contesting Roshan when the Ursa goes into the pit with a huge Ravage. EG understands the game plan of Newbee and does not want them to get away with the easy Roshans. As a result, Cr1t- responded with Zai's Kunkka and Arteezy's Bristleback. Kunkka is able to scout the Rosh pit from far using Torrent and has a big ultimate in Ghostship that can help EG contest Roshan. Also, not only is Bristleback a frontliner that EG needed, he is one of the stronger carries that can withstand the Fury Swipes from an Ursa (unless Ursa gets Silver Edge).
Moving on to the last pick, Newbee is still lacking their hero for Sccc and EG for Universe. Newbee decided to remove Batrider from the picture which is a super strong hero when it comes to contesting Roshan. However, this gives Universe his classic Dark Seer which synergises extremely well with the rest of EG's draft. 1) Buffing the Ember or Bristleback with Ion Shell. 2) Setting up a huge Vacuum-Torrent-Ghostship combo with the Kunkka. 3) Surging an ally away from the Ursa. As for Sccc's hero, the most obvious choice would be Shadow Fiend. SF is a natural Silver Edge carrier against the Bristleback and he is able to stack up his souls before creep spawns with the cogs deny. However, Newbee went for the Outworld Devourer instead which is an extremely strong and viable pick as well for the following reasons: 1) Defensive Astral Imprisonment can be huge in saving allies getting combo-ed by X-Torrent / Searing Chains / Frostbite. 2) A frontlining Bristleback is one of the best ways for OD to stack up those Intelligence Steal. 3) A favorable matchup against Ember in the mid lane.
The draft from both teams seemed extremely well-rounded with one team focusing on taking Roshan while the other team wanting to prevent that. Both the Ursa from Newbee and the Bristleback from EG has a high chance of getting kited in fights, but it seems that if left unchecked, the last pick OD by Newbee will become a serious problem for the EG side.
Draft Advantage: EG 46% - Newbee 54%
