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Hearthstone7 years agoRadoslav "Nydra" Kolev

The stories of Blizzcon. Chapter VI: The champion

Chapter I: The prodigy (Amnesiac)
Chapter II: The red flags (China)
Chapter III: The king of ice (DrHippi)
Chapter IV: The record setter (Handsomeguy)
Chapter V: The redeemed (Naiman)

Thijs' Blizzcon line-up: Malygos Druid, Midrange Shaman, Midrange Secrets, Discardlock, Miracle Rogue

Today, every poll on every Hearthstone board and every site shows the same prediction: Thijs “ThijsNL” Molendijk will be the new Blizzcon champion.

Who can blame the fans? Over the years, ThijsNL has become the poster boy of Hearthstone, growing from an open cup grinder in 2014, to European champion, Blizzcon bronze medalist and player of the year in 2015, to a huge streamer and personality and once again a European champion in 2016. The Dutchman has it all: Charm, energy, humility and top skill, all the necessary ingredients for a Hearthstone hall of famer. There is no reason not to vote for Thijs.

Except it’s been far from a good year for the G2 headliner.

After ending 2015 on the highest possible note, with $86,000 in earnings and Player of the Year GosuAward, Thijs was ready for another fruitful year of Hearthstone tournaments. It took him a while to get started and after his unlikely elimination in the Winter Preliminaries – a tournament which proved to be problematic for many a big name – Thijs returned in the Spring and took his second European championship, making him the first person in Hearthstone history to win two regional titles.

And then that was it, the highlight of ThijsNL’s 2016 career. The player who would enter every tournament and be considered the favorite was now getting ousted in the early rounds of pretty much everything. He faced first round eliminations in six different tournaments, including majors such as CN vs EU Season 3, PGL Bucharest and WCA Europe. He would miss the playoffs of two Truesilver Championships and win just one match in the HCT Summer Preliminaries. His tournament activity and win rate were at an all-time low and in both the April-May period and through August-September he recorded just eight matches. It seemed that ThijsNL, once the king of the rankings and still the highest peaking player of all time, had surrendered the floor and passed on the torch, and only at SeatStory Cup V he would make the top cut of a tournament.

Whether Thijs’ underperformance was rooted in new aspects of the metagame, which he has notoriously struggled to figure out in the past, a transition to a more active streaming schedule, a decline in skill, a perfect storm of bad luck or a combination of the above, it turned the 2015 superstar in someone completely different in regards to tournament results.

While the general public cared little about the Thijs numbers in 2016, the pundits were worried. The Dutchman was about to enter the World Championship for a second time in a row and while that achievement alone is impressive, the stats to support the idea that it would end in a positive result were not there. When Thijs finished third-fourth last year, he rode a wave of hype that was almost skyscraper-esque in its enormity. He was expected to do well, because he always had and sure enough it got him one win away from a grand final, his single loss coming at the hands of the eventual world champion.

None of those factors are present now and there is very little data backing up the European champion coming into Worlds. That in itself is a dangerous first for Thijs’ career in more than one way, but not necessarily to his disadvantage.

Granted, this is the first time since early 2014 we know very little about Thijs’ form as we’re usually used to seeing him everywhere, which could potentially make him an even deadlier contender. Imagine having to play someone who once soared above everyone else with little to no information besides just what decks he’s bringing. There’s no indication if his playstyle has changed, if he’s found out something new about that match-up or another, how he’s practiced and for how long. There’s barely any tournament footage of Thijs as since August he’s played a total of 13 matches.

Imagine having to fight prowling predator deaf and at night. This is what every game against Thijs will feel like going forward.

As my colleague Stefan “Sumadin” Suadicani recently said, “People who’ve bet against ThijsNL in the past have lost big.” He is very much on point. Stats are a fickle foundation to base predictions on, more so in Hearthstone than in any other esport. What’s more, ThijsNL is not only cloaked in the shadows, but he has the entire ingenuity of G2 Esports behind him. That’s Hearthstone’s oldest, most established roster which has won more than $340,000 in the last two years and whose trio between them has won two HCT Championships, three DreamHacks and an ATLC title. Much like a heavy weight boxer prepping for a world title match, ThijsNL has a relentless team of game geniuses working for his success. There is no other contender at worlds with such privilege, literally.

As ThijsNL now readies to play his first match at the 2016 World Championship, fans have the unique opportunity to be fully divided in their predictions for one of Hearthstone’s best players ever. Stat pundits will write off the Dutchman based on his more than lackluster year, while those who vote with their gut will have him reaching the latter stages of the tournament.

Where do you stand?

Photos: Carlton Beener / Blizzard

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