SMM playoffs in numbers
In our first article on statistics, we presented an analysis of ESWC Dota 2 tournament. This time, we're looking at the SMM playoffs. Despite all the technical problems, SMM allowed us to watch some really good matches. We'll see what's trending and what's not, this time with a complete hero pool.
Data and statistics were collected from all the available replays of the playoffs stage, both winner and loser bracket. Not all information was available because some replays are missing due to loads and others were remade in -ap mode.
|During SMM, some heroes were constantly banned due to their sheer power. They were:
Broodmother was banned in 12 of the 19 analyzed matches. Apparently teams hate to deal with a hero that can sit on its lane and constantly pressure it. She got a 50% win ratio, winning and losing one game. We can wonder if she continues to be powerful enough to warrant consistent banning.
Batrider was banned in 10 matches. The reason is simple: he is the strongest level 2 in the whole game, and continues to be useful in the late game with a disable that goes through BKB. Batrider survived the ban phases five times, getting a 80% win ratio with four wins.
Shadow Demon was also banned in 10 matches. Shadow Demon is an extremely potent solo mid with strong anti-carry potential, able to cripple any hero using Soul Catcher and Demonic Purge. This hero got into matches only two times, one resulting in a win.
Furion was banned in 9 matches. His ability to be anywhere, constantly farm and pressure the lanes makes him a very strong hero. His teamfight involvement (Kills + Assists / Total team kills) speaks for itself: a average 0.73 teamfight involvement shows how powerful Furion is. In the five games he was picked, Furion achieved a 60% win rate. Lycanthrope Banned in 9 matches, Lycanthrope is feared for his huge DPS output. However, SMM playoffs weren't a safe jungle for Lycanthrope: with a 40% win ratio over five matches, he was definitely overshadowed by Anti-Mage.
|Most loved heroes|
The most picked heroes in the SMM playoffs were:
Crystal Maiden is the most loved hero of SMM playoffs. Who doesn't love her? Her early game and aura hugely improves any team she's on. She was picked in 15 matches and lost only five! With a 66% win ratio, she proved to be the most stable support in the tournament.
If Crystal Maiden is the most stable support in SMM, Magina is the most powerful carry. Getting picked 10 times, Magina mana-burned his enemies to death and managed to get an enormous 90% win ratio, completely overshadowing Specter, Lycanthrope and every other hard carry. There's no doubt that Anti-Mage is the hard carry right now.
Picked in 9 matches, Earthshaker continues to be favored by most teams due to his disables. However, looking deeper into the numbers, we can say his overall performance wasn't good: with 44% win rate and 0.48 teamfight involvement, it seems that players decided to not give Raigor a starring role, leaving all the dirty jobs to him.
Picked in 9 matches, Puck is known for driving players insane with his huge AoE and great escapability. However, this wasn't the case in SMM: teams only allowed three wins for little Puck, leaving him with a 33% win ratio.
Alleria was picked in nine matches. Her versatility makes her a constant presence in the games. With 44% win ratio, the numbers shows a difference between a winning and a losing Windrunner; while defeated Windrunner players had a 0.54 teamfight involvement, winners had an average of 0.63, with longdd reaching peaks above 0.70.
|Most effective heroes|
|The most effective heroes were:
Pandaren Brewmaster (2-0 100%)
DK and iG made Pandaren Brewmaster a happy panda at SMM. Being used to control teamfights and to counter heroes such as Lycanthrope, Pandaren Brewmaster dominated his matches with a 0.67 teamfight involvement average. Because of such dominant performance, Pandaren Brewmaster was even banned in some matches, mostly by Chinese teams, who are now showing a lot of love to Mangix.
Anti Mage (9-1 90%)
90% win ratio, 0.63 teamfight involvement average. Anything else? Anti-Mage definitely took Specter's place as the scariest hard carry. Batrider (4-1 80%) With 80% win rate, Batrider solidifies his position as a top tier hero.
Chaos Knight (3-1 75%)
I have seen this movie before. In 6.48 era, Nessaj was under Sven's shadow, rarely getting into any games. However, players started using him frequently, especially VP and MYM, giving Nessaj all the attention he deserves. Then Nessaj disappeared, but is now appearing again; with 75% win rate, he even was banned in five matches. Once again, Nessaj is trending, being in a place which traditionally belongs to Sven. The latter got only one appearance in the playoffs.
|Least effective heroes|
|The least effective heroes were:
Holy Knight: (0-3, 0%)
What is going on? Chen getting 0% win ratio? That's right. Not only was Chen frequently left unpicked, he never played for the winning side.
Lion: (2-3, 40%) Once a favored solo-mid hero, Lion has been overshadowed by other heroes, being picked in five games and winning only one. No team could use him to the fullest, leaving him with a 0.47 teamfight involvement average.
Nerubian Weaver: (2-5, 28%)
Nerubian Weaver was completely overshadowed as a carry by Anti-Mage, showing poor performance in SMM playoffs. Weaver was picked seven times and won twice.
Faerie Dragon: (3-6, 33%)
Puck didn't fare well in SMM, winning only three matches. With a 0.65 teamfight involvement average, it is safe to say that it's not Puck's fault he got such bad numbers. He did his job by being present in most fights, but this wasn't enough to guarantee victory.
|There are other numbers which deserve special attention:
Picked in five matches, Witch Doctor reached a 60% win rate mark. If we look at the numbers from matches he won, we'll see a whopping 0.77 teamfight involvement. Wait, someone gave Furion's Teleport to Witch Doctor? iG.Faith is the man responsible for such performance.
Picked in four games and banned in another seven, Lone Druid continues to get a lot of attention despite the huge nerf on his bear, getting a 50% win ratio. The teamfight involvement once again shows the difference between a winning and losing Lone Druid; losers got a 0.53 teamfight involvement average, while winners had a huge 0.75.
Vengeful Spirit and Lich
These two dominant support heroes didn't perform well in SMM. Vengeful Spirit was picked eight times, getting only 25% win rate ratio. Lich was picked 7 times, getting 28% win rate ratio. Both heroes were overshadowed by Crystal Maiden in the support role.
Spectre Being picked only twice and getting banned on four occasions, Spectre did not win a game, showing that teams are now favoring other hard carries.
|And finally, one last number. How many wins Sentinel and Scourge manage to get in SMM? Of the 19 matches we got to analyze, Scourge won in 12 of them, while Sentinel got 7 wins. I believe this is not a coincidence: during ESWC, of 26 matches, Dire won 15 matches, while the Radiant won 11. This leaves Scourge side with a considerable advantage over Sentinel, to the point we can bring an old question back into discussion. Does the map position by itself give one team a static positional advantage? Teams on the Scourge side are poised to win, while teams on Sentinel side have a disadvantage from the start?|
Here's the remaining data on SMM playoffs. If you would like to see all the data, and/or a further analysis of upcoming tourneys, let us know.